G2 Esports vs. 100 Thieves

100 Thieves have the cleaner case on recent form and team cohesion. Multiple previews describe their fundamentals and coordination as stronger, and they already proved they can handle G2 in the latest meeting by winning 2–1. In a best-of-three where map vetoes matter, the team with the more stable baseline and better recent synergy usually deserves favorite status, and 100 Thieves fit that profile well enough to be the side most likely to advance.

That said, the matchup is still close enough that a two-thirds price on 100 Thieves feels a bit rich. G2 have the better long-run pedigree in the head-to-head, have shown a high enough ceiling to beat strong opposition in the playoffs, and their recent 2–0 over Team Liquid suggests they are not merely surviving but peaking at the right time. When the market is already expecting a competitive series, as the near-even maps line suggests, the underdog’s upset path becomes more plausible than the favorite-heavy price implies.

My view is that 100 Thieves should be favored, but not to the extent implied by 66%. The market appears to be leaning too heavily on the most recent direct win and on positive writeups about 100 Thieves’ form, while giving slightly too little credit to G2’s upside and their historical ability to solve this matchup. I would price 100 Thieves around 61%, which leaves the market modestly overpriced on the Yes side.