US-Iran nuclear deal?

The core reason to stay cautious is that the negotiations appear active but not converged. Both sides are still talking, but the public positions remain far apart on the issues that usually determine whether a nuclear agreement can actually be signed: how much uranium enrichment Iran must give up, how much sanctions relief Washington will grant, and what security assurances Tehran can realistically obtain. Reports that the talks are “more serious” or “constructive” are encouraging, but they also explicitly say a final agreement remains distant, which is often where late-stage diplomacy sits before it either stalls or collapses.

There is still a plausible path to a deal if both governments decide that even a limited agreement is better than no agreement. The presence of continued mediation, reported flexibility around inspections, and references to prior near-breakthroughs suggest there is at least an outline that could be revived quickly if political will sharpens. That said, the remaining calendar is short, and the set of unresolved issues is not cosmetic; they go to the heart of each side’s red lines. A year-end agreement would likely require a sudden shift in one side’s willingness to trade off a major concession, and there is not strong evidence of that yet.

Against the market, I think 14% is a bit too low because ongoing contact and mediator involvement keep the deal alive in a way that is not trivial. Still, the market is directionally right that the odds are low. The most likely outcome is continued diplomacy without a formal deal before year-end, and the main reason the market may be underpricing the Yes side is that deals of this type can sometimes come together very late once both parties decide to lock in a limited, face-saving arrangement.