2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?

Resident Evil is already well below the $150 million threshold with only a few weeks remaining, and cumulative box office can only move upward from here. Unless the film stages an unusually large late run, the Yes outcome should be the overwhelming favorite.

Bad Bunny has an excellent historical track record with Spotify year-end dominance, but the 2026 signals so far do not show him leading the platform. I think the market is materially overconfident, and his true chance of finishing number one looks closer to a coin-flip minus than to the current price.

The market is heavily leaning No, but the tracking cluster around $20 million leaves a meaningful path to a sub-$21 million opening. I would still put Yes below even odds because several credible forecasts are at or above the threshold and the safer read is a finish in the low 20s.