What will be the #2 US Netflix show this week?
Monster: The Lizzie Borden Story: Season 1 is much more likely to remain near the top of the Netflix chart than to land specifically at #2. The latest chart evidence points to it having been #1 recently, so the #2 outcome looks like a low-probability reversal.
Analysis
The strongest available evidence works against a Yes outcome. The recent Netflix chart reporting shows Monster: The Lizzie Borden Story: Season 1 sitting at #1 on the US-English TV list for the relevant period, with Wonka’s The Golden Ticket: Season 1 occupying the #2 position. That is important because this market is not asking whether Monster will be highly ranked in general, but whether it will be exactly second in the upcoming US ranking update. If the show’s momentum remains strong, the more natural result is that it stays at or near #1 rather than falling to #2.
The recent viewership pattern also supports that view. The show reportedly posted 14.5 million views and improved week over week, which suggests a strong ongoing audience rather than a title that is fading into a runner-up slot. A show with that kind of performance usually needs either a sharper drop in interest or a much stronger competing release to end up at #2. Because the latest public chart signal already placed it first, the burden of proof is on a meaningful decline over the next update window.
There is still a nonzero chance of Yes because Netflix rankings can shift materially from one weekly snapshot to the next, especially if another title surges or if Monster’s weekly views cool faster than expected. If there is a major new release or if the existing top title experiences an unusually steep decline, Monster could slip from #1 to #2 without becoming weak overall. But based on the reported chart position and the current market context, the most reasonable baseline is that it does not finish second, making the market’s current Yes price look somewhat generous relative to the evidence.
From a market-pricing perspective, the 16.4% Yes probability appears to reflect some uncertainty about weekly volatility, but it still seems high given the direct chart evidence pointing to #1 rather than #2. The key question is whether the next update captures a meaningful enough reversal for Monster to lose one spot while staying near the top. That is possible, but it is not the most likely path, so the No side remains the stronger position.
Arguments
For
- Arguments for Yes: The show has already demonstrated chart momentum, so a modest drop could still leave it in the second spot.
- Arguments for Yes: If another title overtakes it by a narrow margin, Monster could land exactly at #2 even while remaining highly watched.
Against
- Arguments against Yes: The latest reliable ranking data shows Monster at #1, not #2, which directly cuts against the market question.
- Arguments against Yes: Strong week-over-week growth makes it more likely to remain first or at least stay above the #2 threshold.
Key drivers
- Recent chart evidence places Monster at #1, which makes an exact #2 finish less likely.
- The show’s strong and growing viewership suggests it is more likely to stay near the top than slip just one position.
Risk factors
- A major competing title could surge and push Monster down to #2 without knocking it far lower.
- Weekly Netflix rankings can be volatile, so a sharp one-week decline could change the outcome quickly.
Scenarios
Best case
Monster loses a small amount of momentum while one competitor spikes enough to pass it, causing Monster to settle exactly at #2 in the updated US chart.
Most likely
Monster stays among the top two but finishes #1 again or slips to another position other than #2, with No resolving the market.
Worst case
Monster remains the top US Netflix show or falls below #2, making the Yes bet fail decisively.
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