Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Benjamin Netanyahu remains a plausible but not favored candidate to continue as prime minister after the election. The market’s price of about 30% for Yes looks reasonable, and I would put him in roughly the low-to-mid 30s given incumbency, coalition experience, and the fragmentation of Israeli politics.
Analysis
The core question is not whether Netanyahu can still win seats or help form a governing bloc, but whether he can be officially sworn in again after the election. That distinction matters because Israel’s parliamentary system can produce several outcomes where Likud remains strong yet Netanyahu still fails to assemble a majority, is blocked by coalition partners, or is replaced by another right-leaning figure as the compromise choice. With the election still scheduled for late October 2026, there is still time for campaign developments, legal and political shocks, and coalition reshuffling to change the field, but the current setup suggests a highly competitive race rather than a clear path back to power.
Arguments for Yes begin with Netanyahu’s enduring political strength. He remains one of the most recognizable and disciplined figures in Israeli politics, has repeatedly demonstrated an ability to mobilize a loyal base, and often benefits when security, conflict, or international pressure push voters toward experience and continuity. If the right-wing and religious bloc performs well enough to reach a majority, or comes close enough to negotiate effectively with smaller partners, Netanyahu has a credible route to return. His long record also makes him a familiar fallback for parties that prefer policy influence over uncertainty.
Arguments against Yes are also substantial. Netanyahu faces a durable anti-Netanyahu coalition dynamic in Israeli politics, where many potential partners may prefer a right-leaning government without him, even if they share broad ideological preferences. If Likud underperforms, if centrist or protest-oriented forces gain traction, or if coalition negotiations hinge on personal trust and institutional fatigue, another leader from the same general camp could emerge instead. The current market price already reflects that he is not the default outcome, and the likelihood of a post-election deadlock, alternative right-wing leadership, or a broader unity arrangement all reduce the chance that Netanyahu himself is the one sworn in.
Arguments
For
- Arguments for Yes: Netanyahu has a strong record of surviving politically difficult environments and rebuilding governing coalitions.
- Arguments for Yes: If the right-wing bloc wins enough seats, he is still the most likely figure to try to assemble and lead the government.
Against
- Arguments against Yes: Many parties may prefer a coalition that excludes Netanyahu even if it remains broadly right-leaning.
- Arguments against Yes: The election could produce a fragmented Knesset in which another leader is chosen as the compromise prime minister.
Key drivers
- Netanyahu’s personal brand and incumbency advantage keep him highly competitive in coalition bargaining.
- The final seat distribution will determine whether a right-wing majority can form around him or around an alternative.
- Anti-Netanyahu sentiment among coalition partners and swing voters remains a major structural obstacle.
Risk factors
- A strong electoral performance by Likud could still fail if key allies refuse to serve under Netanyahu.
- A post-election security or diplomatic shock could abruptly shift voter preferences and coalition calculations.
- An alternative right-leaning leader could become acceptable to more parties if Netanyahu is seen as the main source of instability.
Scenarios
Best case
The right-wing and religious bloc wins a clear majority, coalition partners remain disciplined, and Netanyahu is able to secure enough backing to be formally sworn in again.
Most likely
Netanyahu remains a serious contender but faces a slightly unfavorable coalition math problem, making him a live possibility without being the most probable final prime minister.
Worst case
Likud underperforms, anti-Netanyahu forces coordinate around an alternative candidate, and another leader is sworn in or the system drifts toward a non-Netanyahu compromise government.
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