Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?

I think the chance of a DOE solicitation to sell or exchange SPR crude before the deadline is meaningfully below the market price. With only about a day left and no visible catalyst, I would put Yes around 14%.

Ulf Kristersson looks like the leading candidate to become the next prime minister, but the outcome still depends on whether he can assemble enough parliamentary tolerance or support. I think the market is underestimating his chances somewhat, though the deadlock keeps this far from assured.

The Yes outcome looks overwhelmingly likely because the provided reporting already describes multiple Cabinet-level departures or replacements before the January 2027 cutoff. The only real uncertainty is resolution language, not whether turnover has occurred.