Will the Treasury purchase Bitcoin?

The strongest evidence points against a near-term purchase announcement. The reserve framework described in the recent reporting is built primarily around forfeited or seized Bitcoin, and the March 2025 executive order appears to have emphasized budget-neutral acquisition strategies rather than authorizing a straightforward open-market buying program. That matters because it suggests the government has been careful to avoid the kind of explicit taxpayer-funded accumulation that would be easiest to classify as a completed Treasury purchase announcement.

Still, the probability is not zero because policy can change quickly if the administration decides to use existing authorities in a creative way, or if Congress supplies a narrower funding mechanism than a full-scale program. The phrase “budget-neutral strategies” leaves some room for asset swaps, forfeiture reinvestment, or other structured transactions that could be framed as a purchase if Treasury chooses to announce it that way. If political incentives shift toward making the reserve more durable, a formal announcement could emerge even without a large headline-grabbing buying spree.

Compared with the market price of 7%, I think the market is somewhat too skeptical, but not dramatically so. The low price is justified by the current lack of any announced purchase, the absence of clear congressional authorization, and the fact that much of the public discussion still centers on seizures rather than acquisition. My higher estimate mainly reflects tail risk from an administrative or legislative surprise rather than evidence that a purchase is already likely.