Will Congress override Trump's veto?

The core obstacle is structural: overriding a presidential veto requires two-thirds support in both chambers, and that is exceptionally rare in today’s polarized Congress. The recent Senate vote on Trump-related war powers, 50-49, is a good real-time signal of how far current coalitions are from the threshold. While Congress did override Trump once in 2020 on the NDAA, that happened in a very different environment with a uniquely broad bipartisan consensus on a must-pass bill, and that kind of alignment is the exception rather than the rule. With only a short window left before 2027, the event also depends on timing: there must be a veto, followed by enough legislative calendar to organize override votes, and a pocket veto would eliminate the possibility entirely if the timing is unfavorable.

Arguments for Yes are that Congress has shown it can override Trump when the issue is salient enough and when enough Republicans break ranks, so the outcome is not theoretically out of reach. A high-priority defense, budget, or emergency bill could still generate cross-party pressure, especially if a veto blocks something broadly popular or politically costly. The remaining months also include a period where unexpected crises can force fast-moving legislation, which is precisely the kind of setting where veto overrides are more plausible than in ordinary partisan disputes.

Arguments against Yes are stronger: there has been no recent evidence of bipartisan support anywhere near the two-thirds line, and the latest Trump-related fights have fallen short even of simple majority-level resistance in the Senate. Since the market asks for an actual override before 2027, not merely a veto or a close vote, the event requires a rare sequence of conditions: a vetoed bill, sufficient time for reconsideration, and supermajority support in both chambers. That combination is hard enough in normal times and looks especially hard given the current polarization and the short remaining timeline.

The market’s 9.9% yes price seems a bit rich relative to the actual mechanics and the time left. I do think the chance is non-zero because a single bipartisan must-pass bill can surprise, but the base rate for veto overrides is low and the calendar is now very tight, so a number closer to the mid-single digits looks more defensible.