Thomas Tuchel: Out by Date

The market looks heavily tilted toward Yes because 300k is far below the documented commercial scale of the original release, and the encore is being framed as a continuation of that blockbuster era. The main uncertainty is that the encore’s exact first-week figure has not yet been reported, but the available context still strongly favors clearing the threshold.

The evidence strongly suggests the San Francisco metro median home value will remain above $1,176,000 on September 30, so the chance of a Yes outcome is low. The market price looks too optimistic for Yes given the recent price level and momentum.