US real GDP growth in 2036?

The strongest anchor in the supplied material is the CBO’s long-run projection environment, which points to U.S. real GDP growth averaging around 1.8% through 2036. That makes the 1.6% to 2.0% range the cleanest modal outcome: it is consistent with trend growth that is neither recessionary nor boom-like, and it fits a mature U.S. economy facing demographic drag, but still benefiting from productivity and capital deepening. Near-term data can be noisy and even strong, but for a 2036 endpoint the long-run trend matters far more than any single quarter’s GDPNow reading.

The case for slightly higher growth than the market implies is that the economy has repeatedly surprised to the upside on productivity, labor supply can remain more resilient than long-run models assume, and policy/technology effects could keep real growth above 2% for extended periods. That supports a nontrivial share of outcomes in the 2.1% to 2.5% band, especially if AI-driven investment and efficiency gains compound over the next decade. At the same time, very high-growth outcomes above 2.5% remain possible but are hard to justify as the central case without a sustained productivity regime shift.

Relative to the current market, I think the pricing is too tilted toward no/low-growth scenarios and not enough toward a centered 1.6% to 2.5% distribution. The 25% market probability on the leading 1.6% to 2.0% band looks a bit low given the CBO-style anchor, while the combined weight on sub-1.5% and zero-or-negative outcomes appears somewhat aggressive unless there is a clear belief in structural stagnation or recession. My read is that the market is modestly mispriced toward weakness, not dramatically, because the long-run forecast still clusters around trend growth rather than outright slowdown.