Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?
Anthropic appears more likely than OpenAI to IPO first, but the market question is about either one going first, which I assess as highly likely and close to certain. The key uncertainty is timing, not direction: OpenAI’s own guidance points later while Anthropic seems to be moving earlier.
Analysis
The balance of evidence strongly supports a Yes outcome because both companies appear to be on an IPO path, with Anthropic currently looking earlier in the process and OpenAI publicly and internally signaling a later window. OpenAI’s CFO has framed the company as becoming public in 2027 or sooner, while reporting suggests Anthropic may be aiming for a fall 2026 debut, which makes it very likely that one of them will list before the other within the long 2040 deadline.
The main reason to keep the probability below absolute certainty is that both companies remain private and neither has locked in a firm pricing date or final filing timeline. A reversal is possible if OpenAI accelerates dramatically, if Anthropic slows or abandons its plans, or if one company is acquired, restructures, or otherwise avoids a traditional IPO, but those are narrower scenarios than the broad trend implied by the current reporting.
The market price looks directionally reasonable but still slightly conservative relative to the evidence, because the contract only needs one of two heavily funded, late-stage AI leaders to IPO before 2040. With OpenAI already filing confidentially and Anthropic reportedly further along in IPO preparation, the market may be underestimating how unlikely it is that both remain private for the next 14 years, especially given the scale, investor pressure, and precedent for eventual public listings of frontier AI companies.
Arguments
For
- Anthropic is described as potentially targeting a fall 2026 IPO, which would likely put it ahead of OpenAI.
- OpenAI has confidentially filed with the SEC, making an eventual listing increasingly plausible even if the date slips.
Against
- Neither company has committed to a firm IPO date, so the sequence could still change.
- OpenAI’s 2027-or-sooner framing leaves room for an acceleration that could narrow or eliminate Anthropic’s lead.
Key drivers
- Anthropic appears to be moving earlier than OpenAI in the IPO process.
- OpenAI has signaled a public-company timeline around 2027 rather than an imminent listing.
Risk factors
- Either company could delay, restructure, or stay private much longer than expected.
- A major regulatory, market, or strategic shift could derail an IPO path for one or both firms.
Scenarios
Best case
Anthropic completes an IPO in late 2026 while OpenAI follows later, making the Yes outcome straightforward and early.
Most likely
Anthropic moves first, with OpenAI listing later, and the market resolves Yes well before the 2040 deadline.
Worst case
One or both companies avoid a conventional IPO for years due to market, regulatory, or strategic reasons, creating a long delay and making the sequencing uncertain.
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