Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?

The core case for Yes is that Anthropic appears to have the stronger near-term IPO catalyst. Recent reporting says Anthropic has already confidentially filed and is being discussed as potentially going public as soon as September or fall 2026, while OpenAI’s own CFO has framed public-company status as a 2027 event, even if sooner is possible. In a race where timing matters more than ultimate ambition, the company with the earlier plausible window generally deserves the advantage.

OpenAI still has a meaningful path to winning this race, and that is what keeps the probability below the market’s enthusiasm for a near-lock. It has also confidentially filed, its growth narrative is stronger, and management could accelerate if market conditions stay favorable. But the company’s own messaging points to patience, and large valuation aspirations could encourage waiting for a cleaner tape and better operating metrics before listing.

Compared with the current market price of 91%, this looks somewhat overpriced on the Yes side. A 91% price implies Anthropic almost surely beats OpenAI, yet the evidence supports a strong preference rather than near certainty; OpenAI’s filing, public-company aspiration, and ability to surprise earlier all preserve a real chance of first-mover status. The market likely overweights the current momentum narrative and underweights how often highly valued private companies delay or sequence IPOs around valuation and market windows rather than internal readiness alone.