Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?

The baseline case is continuity. Infantino has been firmly entrenched at FIFA for years, and there is no visible sign in the provided context of a resignation, firing, or formal succession process that would normally precede an early exit. Because this market resolves Yes only if he ceases to be president for any length of time before year-end, the relevant question is not whether he eventually leaves office, but whether an unusual and fairly immediate disruption occurs in the next four months. Without a concrete catalyst, that remains unlikely.

Historically, leaders of major international sports bodies tend to leave on their own timetable unless there is a major governance crisis, legal jeopardy, severe health problem, or overwhelming political pressure. Infantino has also already secured a current term running beyond this date, which lowers the incentive for a voluntary early exit before the end of 2026. A planned transition would more naturally occur closer to the next election cycle rather than in the middle of a term, especially when there is no evidence here that he is under pressure to step aside.

The main reason to keep some probability on Yes is that the market resolves on an announcement of intention to resign, not just the effective departure date, so a sudden decision could trigger a quick resolution. FIFA leadership has also occasionally been surrounded by controversy, and a surprise disciplinary or personal development could alter the picture quickly. Even so, these are tail risks rather than base-rate expectations, and the current 14% market price still appears high relative to the absence of a known trigger.

Overall, the most defensible assessment is that No remains the dominant outcome by a wide margin. A low-single-digit to high-single-digit Yes probability better fits the combination of his institutional position, the lack of current pressure, and the short remaining window before December 31.