Will President Trump be impeached during his term?

Impeachment is a political process, not just a reflection of popularity or scandal severity, and the hardest hurdle is usually the House majority’s willingness to act. Even in a polarized environment, members of the president’s own party typically resist moving toward impeachment unless there is overwhelming public pressure, clear legal jeopardy, or a dramatic event that changes elite incentives. That means the baseline for a sitting president to be impeached is meaningfully below what a simple read of political volatility might suggest.

The strongest case for Yes is that Trump has already been impeached twice in a prior term, so the precedent for a renewed impeachment fight is not hypothetical. If his second term produces a major constitutional crisis, a large corruption or abuse-of-power scandal, or a collapse in legislative support, the House could move quickly, especially if control shifts to the opposition or if a wave election makes impeachment politically useful. In that sense, the tail risk is real and the event window is long enough to capture one or more crisis cycles.

Even so, a 63% market price implies impeachment is the most likely outcome, and that seems too aggressive. The more common pattern is intense conflict without the formal step of impeachment, because leadership often prefers censure, investigations, funding fights, or electoral punishment over a process that can backfire politically. Absent a truly exceptional trigger, the path of least resistance is sustained confrontation without the House taking the final step, which is why my independent probability sits well below the market.

The market may be overweighting Trump-specific volatility, prior impeachment history, and the long time horizon while underweighting the institutional friction required to turn scandal into articles of impeachment. If the political environment becomes unusually adverse for Republicans, the Yes probability would rise sharply, but on today’s information the current price looks overpriced relative to the actual impeachment threshold.