Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Netanyahu remains a viable but not favored path to becoming Israel’s next prime minister after the 2026 election. I estimate a 32% chance, which is above the market price but still well below even odds.
Analysis
Benjamin Netanyahu is still the most recognizable and durable figure in Israeli national politics, and that alone keeps his probability meaningful. If Likud performs well enough and the broader right-wing and religious bloc is cohesive, he has a straightforward route back to the premiership because Israeli governments are usually decided by coalition arithmetic rather than by a direct popular mandate for one person. That structural advantage is why the market cannot treat him as a long shot even if sentiment has cooled.
The main argument in his favor is that he has repeatedly demonstrated an ability to survive politically, rebuild alliances, and turn fragmented parliamentary outcomes into governing coalitions. In a system where smaller parties can determine the outcome, a familiar leader with a loyal base can still prevail if the opposition cannot unite behind a single alternative or if several coalition partners prefer Netanyahu to a center-left compromise candidate. If the election follows a period of heightened security concern, incumbency-style credibility and a focus on experience could also help him or his bloc.
The main argument against him is that his political ceiling may now be lower than in prior cycles. Voters and coalition partners who once tolerated him may be more determined to prevent another Netanyahu-led government, and legal, personal, and polarization concerns continue to limit his coalition options. Even if Likud remains strong, he could still be blocked by a narrow anti-Netanyahu majority, by a rival on the right, or by a unity arrangement that elevates someone else from inside his own camp. The current market price implies skepticism about his path, and that skepticism is reasonable because the election can easily produce a fragmented Knesset where coalition talks become the real contest.
A further source of uncertainty is timing and government formation. The market resolves only when someone is formally sworn in, so a prolonged stalemate, repeat election, or delayed coalition agreement creates an additional path away from a Netanyahu win. That said, Israel almost always ends up with a sworn-in prime minister eventually, so the bigger question is not whether someone will take office, but whether Netanyahu can be the person who does.
Arguments
For
- Netanyahu still has the strongest personal brand and most proven coalition-building record among Israeli national figures.
- If the right-wing bloc retains enough seats, his path to a governing majority is simpler than any alternative coalition.
Against
- Many parties are deeply motivated to block him, which reduces the number of coalition combinations available to him.
- If Likud underperforms or a broad opposition bloc coordinates effectively, he can be excluded even after a competitive election.
Key drivers
- Likud's seat count relative to the rest of the right-wing bloc will largely determine whether Netanyahu has a viable governing coalition.
- Opposition unity or fragmentation will decide whether a credible non-Netanyahu alternative can outvote him in coalition talks.
- Public sentiment around security, war, and stability could improve or damage Netanyahu's chances depending on the campaign environment.
- Smaller parties' willingness to back Netanyahu again will be decisive because they often control the final coalition math.
Risk factors
- A strong anti-Netanyahu majority could form even if Likud remains a large party.
- Another election stalemate or coalition deadlock could lead to a different compromise candidate or a delayed resolution.
- Leadership changes inside Likud could open the door to a successor if Netanyahu weakens politically.
- An unexpected shift in the security or economic environment could rapidly change voter preferences before coalition negotiations.
Scenarios
Best case
Likud and its natural allies win enough seats for a stable right-wing coalition, opposition parties remain divided, and Netanyahu is sworn in again as prime minister.
Most likely
Netanyahu remains competitive but faces significant coalition resistance, leaving him with a real but minority chance of returning while a non-Netanyahu alternative is slightly more likely.
Worst case
A clear anti-Netanyahu majority forms, coalition partners refuse to join him, and another leader is sworn in instead or the process drifts toward a different compromise outcome.
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