Will Trump be impeached and removed from office?
I put the chance that Trump is both impeached and removed from office before January 2029 at 10%. Impeachment is plausible in a polarized Congress, but actual removal still requires a near-unprecedented Senate break that remains very difficult to imagine absent an extraordinary scandal.
Analysis
The main reason this outcome stays unlikely is that it is a two-step event: the House must first impeach Trump, and then the Senate must remove him by a two-thirds vote. Even if Democrats win the House in the 2026 midterms and choose to impeach, removal would still require a large bloc of Republican senators to defect, which historically only becomes plausible under truly catastrophic circumstances such as overwhelming evidence of criminal conduct, incapacitation paired with a constitutional crisis, or a collapse in presidential legitimacy.
Trump’s history cuts both ways. He is unusually exposed to scandal, conflict, and rapid political deterioration, which keeps impeachment on the table for the rest of the term. But he is also one of the most partisan figures in modern American politics, and that polarization makes cross-party Senate removal even harder than for a more conventional president. Past impeachments have shown that Congress can move against a president, but actual removal has never happened; Nixon resigned before the Senate could act, which underscores how high the bar is.
Against that backdrop, a single-digit to low-teens probability is more defensible than a double-digit probability near the high teens. The current market price of 17% looks somewhat rich because it likely prices in a decent chance of impeachment without fully discounting how rarely removal follows. I would still leave meaningful tail risk, because Trump’s presidency could be derailed by an extreme scandal, a major legal revelation, or a constitutional crisis that changes senatorial incentives overnight.
Arguments
For
- Trump is highly vulnerable to scandal and could create conditions that trigger impeachment.
- If Democrats win the House, they would have the votes and incentive to impeach quickly.
Against
- The Senate removal threshold is so high that partisan loyalty will usually block conviction.
- There is no modern precedent for removing a president without an extraordinary collapse of support.
Key drivers
- A Democratic House after the 2026 midterms would make impeachment procedurally realistic.
- Removal requires a two-thirds Senate vote, which is extraordinarily difficult in a polarized era.
Risk factors
- An extreme scandal or credible criminal evidence could rapidly shift Republican senators toward removal.
- Unexpected health, legal, or constitutional crises could create a path that is hard to anticipate today.
Scenarios
Best case
A major scandal, conviction-level evidence, or constitutional crisis produces bipartisan panic, the House impeaches, and enough Republican senators defect to remove Trump.
Most likely
Trump faces recurring investigations and political conflict, but none of it crosses the threshold needed to unite two-thirds of the Senate behind removal.
Worst case
Trump avoids a scandal severe enough to force bipartisan action, the House never impeaches or does so symbolically, and he finishes the term in office.
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