Which Supreme Court justices will resign during Trump's term?

Samuel Alito is in his mid-80s by the end of the market window, and age alone makes a resignation during the term a credible possibility. Justices often leave when they believe the timing maximizes the chance of a like-minded successor, and a Republican administration offers the strongest strategic incentive for a conservative justice to step down rather than risk a later Democratic appointment. That said, Alito has historically shown little sign of wanting to leave the Court early, and justices with strong institutional identities frequently remain until health or personal circumstances force the issue.

The case for a resignation is strongest if Alito views this as the last realistic chance to secure his ideological legacy with a successor who would preserve his jurisprudential priorities. A long remaining horizon through January 2029 is enough time for a planned retirement, and the market window is broad enough that normal aging, health, or family considerations could easily tip the balance. The case against resignation is that many justices prefer to remain as long as they can perform the job, particularly if they value influence, status, and the ability to shape major cases during a conservative majority.

The market price implies a modest favorite for Yes at 56%, which is broadly reasonable but slightly low relative to the combination of age risk and strategic timing incentives. I would lean a bit more bullish on Yes because the event window is long and the political logic for a conservative justice to depart under a Republican president is unusually strong, though the absence of any clear public signal keeps this from being a high-confidence call. The market does not look badly mispriced, but it may be underweighting how often age-plus-favorable-timing produces a resignation in exactly this kind of setup.