How many Supreme Court justices will the President confirm?
I make exactly one Supreme Court confirmation the most likely outcome, but only by a modest margin over two confirmations or no confirmations. The market is close, though I think it is a bit too concentrated in the one-vacancy scenario.
Analysis
With no fresh news to indicate an imminent resignation, death, or nomination fight, the cleanest way to assess this market is through Court demographics and the remaining time in the term. Over a little more than two years remain in the 2025-2029 term, which is enough time for one vacancy to open and be confirmed, but not enough to make multiple confirmations the dominant outcome. The age profile of the Court still matters a lot: there are a couple of justices old enough that retirement or mortality risk is nontrivial, while the rest of the bench is young enough that three or four confirmations would require an unusually volatile sequence of events.
That makes one confirmation the modal outcome, but not a strong one. I put substantial weight on two confirmations because the same conditions that produce one vacancy can easily produce a second, especially if a strategic retirement aligns with a retirement or health event later in the term. I also keep meaningful probability on zero because Supreme Court openings are sparse and can simply fail to materialize during a short remaining window.
Relative to the market, I am a bit less enthusiastic about exactly one and a bit more comfortable with the tails around it. A 37% market price for one is not obviously wrong, but it seems to understate the combined chance that the term ends with either no openings or with a second confirmation alongside the first. In other words, the market looks slightly too centered on the single-vacancy outcome and not quite broad enough across the neighboring states.
Arguments
For
- Historically, a single Supreme Court vacancy during a presidential term is a common outcome.
- The bench still has at least one or two justices whose age makes a confirmation within the term plausible.
Against
- Supreme Court openings are rare enough that zero confirmations remains a serious possibility.
- The same age profile that supports one confirmation also leaves meaningful odds of a second, diluting the probability of exactly one.
Key drivers
- The remaining term length is long enough for one vacancy, but not long enough to make multiple confirmations routine.
- The Court's older justices create real but lumpy retirement and mortality risk, which concentrates outcomes around zero, one, or two confirmations.
Risk factors
- An unexpected death or abrupt retirement could quickly push the total from one to two confirmations.
- Strategic retirement timing and the president's political alignment could delay or accelerate a vacancy in ways that are hard to model.
Scenarios
Best case
A single vacancy opens and is confirmed cleanly, with no additional openings before the end of the term.
Most likely
The president ends the term with one Supreme Court confirmation, but the next most plausible outcomes are two confirmations or none.
Worst case
Either no vacancy occurs or two justices leave, making exactly one confirmation miss despite the term having enough time for change.
Outcomes
| Outcome | AI | MKT |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 34% | 37% |
| 2 | 31% | 30% |
| 0 | 23% | 20% |
| 3 | 8% | 5% |
| 4 | 4% | 2% |
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