US real GDP growth in 2033?

The most credible long-run forecasters cluster around roughly 2% real growth by the early 2030s, and that is the right anchor for 2033. The CBO sees growth slowing toward about 1.8% through 2035, the Fed’s longer-run projections sit near 2.0% to 2.3%, and other mainstream outlooks still allow growth a bit above 2% if productivity gains persist. That makes the middle of the distribution a modestly positive growth year, not stagnation, with the heaviest mass in the 1.6% to 2.5% range and some chance of a stronger 2.6% to 3.0% print if AI-related productivity effects last longer than expected.

A zero-or-negative outcome is possible, but it requires a recession or a major shock in that specific year. Over a seven-year horizon, recession risk is non-trivial, yet it is still too small to make outright contraction the leading case. The more likely downside path is not a collapse into negative growth, but a drift into the 1.1% to 2.0% bands if labor-force growth weakens, productivity disappoints, or fiscal and monetary conditions are less supportive than expected.

Against that backdrop, the market looks somewhat too bearish on the 0.0% or below bucket at 12%. My estimate is closer to 7%, because the long-run baseline is still positive and the main tail risk is a downturn, not persistent stagnation. The market also appears to underweight the central 2.1% to 2.5% outcome relative to the evidence from the Fed, Vanguard, and Deloitte-style productivity optimism, even though that range is the most natural landing zone if the U.S. economy merely grows near potential.