Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Benjamin Netanyahu still has a plausible path back to the premiership, but he is not the favorite. The combination of weak polling, strong anti-Netanyahu sentiment, and coalition arithmetic makes a No outcome somewhat more likely than Yes.
Analysis
Netanyahu enters the election cycle as a uniquely durable political figure: he is the incumbent prime minister, still leads Likud, and has a proven ability to survive unfavorable polling by holding together a loyal bloc and negotiating effectively after elections. In Israel’s parliamentary system, the key question is not simply whether he wins the most public support, but whether he can assemble 61 Knesset seats through a coalition that tolerates or prefers him. That structural reality keeps his odds meaningfully alive even when his personal favorability is weak. The current market price around one-third implies that this is still a live but uphill path, and that seems directionally right.
The main reason to be skeptical is that the latest polling does not show Netanyahu as the clear national choice for prime minister. Several recent surveys place him behind Naftali Bennett or Gadi Eisenkot in head-to-head suitability questions, which is a warning sign because these contests often capture the basic governing preference that later shapes coalition logic. The broader political climate also remains hostile to him: the October 7 legacy, corruption-related baggage, and fatigue with his long tenure all make it easier for rivals to frame the election as a referendum on ending his era. If one of the major challengers can maintain momentum and present a credible alternative bloc, Netanyahu’s path gets much narrower.
At the same time, the opposition’s advantage is not automatically decisive. Israeli elections frequently produce fragmented results, and anti-Netanyahu forces have historically struggled to agree on a single leader or stable governing formula. If Likud performs respectably, if right-wing partners remain unwilling to abandon Netanyahu, or if the anti-Netanyahu camp fails to cohere around one prime ministerial candidate, he can still emerge as the coalition’s consensus pick even without being the public’s first choice. That makes his chances materially better than a simple reading of the polls might suggest, but still below even odds because he needs both a decent electoral result and a workable post-election alignment.
Arguments
For
- Arguments for Yes: Netanyahu remains the sitting prime minister and the central figure of the largest right-wing force, which gives him a real coalition advantage.
- Arguments for Yes: Israel’s parliamentary system allows a leader to become prime minister through post-election deals even without leading the most popular national camp.
Against
- Arguments against Yes: Recent polling suggests voters increasingly prefer alternatives such as Bennett or Eisenkot for the top job.
- Arguments against Yes: The anti-Netanyahu camp has a credible narrative of change and could unite enough seats to block him.
Key drivers
- Netanyahu’s incumbency and long-standing Likud base give him a resilient floor of support.
- Polling currently shows rivals like Bennett and Eisenkot competitive or ahead in prime-minister suitability matchups.
- Coalition formation is likely to decide the outcome more than the raw vote share.
- A fragmented opposition could still fail to prevent Netanyahu from assembling 61 seats.
Risk factors
- A strong anti-Netanyahu bloc could coalesce around a single alternative leader after the election.
- If Likud underperforms, Netanyahu may lose the bargaining power needed to remain prime minister.
Scenarios
Best case
Likud and its natural allies win enough seats for Netanyahu to build a stable coalition, and rival factions fail to agree on a unified alternative, allowing him to be sworn in again.
Most likely
The election produces another fragmented Knesset with no clear public mandate for Netanyahu, but his coalition path remains difficult and ultimately falls short of the 61-seat threshold needed to return him to office.
Worst case
An anti-Netanyahu bloc coalesces around a single challenger who can command a majority, and Netanyahu is excluded from the governing coalition entirely.
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