Will Trump be impeached and removed from office?

The key distinction is that this market is not asking only whether Trump gets impeached; it requires both House impeachment and Senate removal before his term ends. That is a much higher bar than impeachment alone, and the current reporting points away from an immediate move by House Democrats. Reuters says Democratic leadership is prioritizing investigations, subpoenas, and document requests first, with impeachment only possible later if those probes uncover evidence strong enough to justify it. That makes the near-term path to a yes outcome slower and more contingent than a simple political backlash story would suggest.

Historical precedent also argues for caution. Trump was impeached twice before, including in circumstances that generated intense national scrutiny, yet the Senate still did not convict either time. In the current political environment, conviction would still require a two-thirds Senate majority, which is extraordinarily hard to assemble absent an overwhelming scandal and a major collapse in Republican support. Even if Democrats win the House in 2026 and launch impeachment, removal remains the far more remote step.

Against that backdrop, my independent estimate is well below the market’s 19% yes price. The market likely reflects a plausible future in which Democrats regain the House, investigations produce damaging findings, and impeachment becomes politically feasible. But that is not the same as removal, and the Senate hurdle is so high that the combined event should trade materially lower unless there is evidence of an existential legal or constitutional crisis. I therefore view the market as overstating the probability of the full impeachment-plus-removal sequence.