Will President Trump be impeached during his term?

The strongest case for impeachment is structural rather than immediate: if Democrats win the House in 2026, they will control the only chamber needed to impeach and will have time to investigate potential financial conflicts, donor arrangements, or other conduct that could be framed as abuse of office. Trump has already been impeached twice, so the constitutional mechanism is familiar and there is no procedural taboo against doing it again if party leaders think the evidence and politics line up.

The weaker side of the ledger is that the current reporting is explicitly about contingency planning, not an active impeachment drive. Democratic leaders are signaling caution, saying they want investigations first and do not want to launch into an impeachment vote on day one without a solid evidentiary basis. That matters because the House threshold is low in a mathematical sense but still requires a majority willing to pay the political costs of a highly visible confrontation.

Against the market price, this looks somewhat overconfident. A 61% implied chance assumes either a Democratic House or a scandal strong enough to unify them is more likely than not, but the available reporting points to uncertainty on both fronts. My view is that impeachment is very plausible, but not the base case, because the biggest gatekeepers are 2026 House control and whether investigators uncover something clearly impeachable rather than merely damaging.