How many Supreme Court justices will the President confirm?
I think the most likely outcome is exactly one Supreme Court confirmation during the 2025-2029 term, with a probability modestly above the market. The strongest driver is the very high likelihood that at least one vacancy opens over a full presidential term, while the main counterpoint is that confirmations are still contingent on retirement timing, death, and Senate control.
Analysis
The core question is not whether a president can confirm a justice in the abstract, but whether at least one vacancy appears during the term. Because Supreme Court justices serve life tenure and only leave through death, retirement, resignation, or removal, there is no scheduled vacancy built into the Court’s structure, so the event depends entirely on unpredictable turnover. That makes zero confirmations a real possibility, but over a four-year presidential term, the base rate for at least one vacancy is still substantial, especially given the age and tenure profile of the current Court.
Exactly one confirmation looks like the single most plausible point estimate because it combines two facts: one vacancy is fairly likely, but multiple vacancies are harder to get in a single term. The current market’s top outcome is 1 at 47%, which is directionally sensible, but I think the market is somewhat underweighting the chance of exactly one opening and over-discounting how often a single vacancy is the modal outcome in a normal presidential term. The long odds on 3 or 4 confirmations also make sense, since those outcomes would require an unusually high cluster of departures in a short window.
Compared with the market, I would price 1 a bit higher and 0 a bit lower. The market’s 20% for zero confirmations seems a little too pessimistic about turnover risk, while its 30% for two confirmations looks slightly rich relative to the fact that multiple Supreme Court departures in one term are possible but still uncommon. Confirmation politics matter, but they are secondary here; the dominant uncertainty is whether a seat opens at all, and on that dimension exactly one confirmation is the cleanest central case.
Arguments
For
- A single vacancy is the most plausible turnover pattern over one presidential term.
- The current Court has nine justices with no scheduled openings, so the event is driven by ordinary attrition rather than legislative change.
Against
- The Court could remain unchanged for the entire term, which would produce zero confirmations.
- If more than one justice leaves within four years, the outcome shifts away from exactly one and toward two or more.
Key drivers
- Supreme Court justices have lifetime tenure, so confirmations only occur when an actual vacancy opens.
- A full presidential term gives enough time for at least one vacancy to emerge, making exactly one confirmation the most natural central outcome.
Risk factors
- If no justice retires, dies, or resigns during the term, the outcome is zero confirmations.
- If one vacancy opens early and the Senate is aligned, a second vacancy could still arise, pushing the result to two or more.
Scenarios
Best case
One justice leaves the Court during the term and the vacancy is filled once, producing exactly one confirmation.
Most likely
One vacancy opens at some point in the term and is confirmed, while a second vacancy does not materialize in time.
Worst case
No justice leaves the Court during the term, so the president confirms no Supreme Court justices.
Outcomes
| Outcome | AI | MKT |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 55% | 47% |
| 2 | 23% | 30% |
| 0 | 16% | 20% |
| 3 | 5% | 5% |
| 4 | 1% | 2% |
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