Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Netanyahu is still a serious contender, but the polling and coalition outlook slightly favor an alternative leading the next government. I assess his chance of being the next Prime Minister at below even odds, with a meaningful but not dominant path back to office.
Analysis
The market is asking whether Benjamin Netanyahu will be the next Prime Minister after the election, which in Israel depends less on the top vote-getter and more on who can assemble a 61-seat coalition. That matters because recent reporting repeatedly says Netanyahu remains viable, but the emerging anti-Netanyahu camp may have enough strength to block him if it stays cohesive.
The latest polling picture is mixed but no longer clearly in Netanyahu’s favor. Multiple reports say Gadi Eisenkot has become Netanyahu’s strongest challenger, with some head-to-head surveys tied and others giving Eisenkot a modest edge, while seat projections have sometimes shown the opposition bloc ahead or at least competitive enough to deny Netanyahu a majority. At the same time, one poll cited by JNS shows Netanyahu still being viewed as best suited for the premiership by a large margin, which suggests he retains a durable personal brand even if it does not automatically translate into coalition control.
The central uncertainty is coalition arithmetic. Netanyahu has a straightforward path if Likud plus the religious and far-right parties win enough seats and remain disciplined, and Britannica notes those blocs are likely to favor him if they qualify for the Knesset. But recent coverage also emphasizes that opposition alignment is more competitive than before, with Bennett, Lapid, and Eisenkot all relevant to the anti-Netanyahu effort, and Reuters notes that political gridlock could still leave Netanyahu in a caretaker role if no alternative coalition forms quickly.
The current market price of 34.5% for Yes appears directionally consistent with a tough but non-negligible path for Netanyahu. I would not price him as the favorite because the newer challenger narrative, the close or unfavorable coalition-seat polling, and the possibility of a consolidated anti-Netanyahu bloc all point against him, but I also would not push him into the low 20s because he remains the incumbent, retains strong support within key right-wing parties, and still has multiple plausible coalition routes.
Arguments
For
- Arguments for Yes: Netanyahu still has a credible path through Likud plus allied religious and right-wing parties if they secure enough seats.
- Arguments for Yes: His name recognition and long tenure give him a durable coalition-building advantage in a fragmented parliament.
Against
- Arguments against Yes: Recent reporting increasingly frames Eisenkot as the strongest challenger and suggests Netanyahu may struggle to form a majority.
- Arguments against Yes: Several polls indicate the anti-Netanyahu bloc could be competitive enough to block him from becoming prime minister again.
Key drivers
- Coalition math is the decisive variable, and Netanyahu needs a 61-seat governing bloc rather than simply strong personal support.
- Recent polling gives Eisenkot and the broader anti-Netanyahu bloc enough strength to plausibly deny Netanyahu a majority.
- Likud remains a major force and Netanyahu retains loyal support among religious and right-wing parties.
- Israeli politics is fragmented, which makes a hung parliament or prolonged negotiation a realistic outcome.
Risk factors
- Opposition fragmentation could allow Netanyahu to assemble a government even without a clear popular lead.
- Personal-suitability polling still shows Netanyahu with a resilient base that can matter in coalition bargaining.
- Seat projections are volatile, and a small shift in turnout or alliances could flip the result.
- If no stable coalition forms, Netanyahu could remain in office longer as caretaker while negotiations continue.
Scenarios
Best case
Likud and its natural right-wing partners perform well, the opposition remains divided, and Netanyahu is the easiest figure to assemble around, allowing him to be sworn in again.
Most likely
Netanyahu remains competitive but falls short of the most reliable coalition path, while the final outcome hinges on post-election bargaining and whether opposition parties can stay united.
Worst case
The anti-Netanyahu camp coalesces behind a single alternative, secures enough seats with centrist and left-leaning partners, and Netanyahu is excluded from the premiership.
More from this day
- pop culturePolymarket2mo
GTA 6 launch postponed again?
AI89%MKT11%Edge+78Hidden GemThe market is asking whether GTA 6 will be delayed again beyond its current November 19, 2026 date. Based on the latest official announcement, the most likely outcome is No, but there remains a meaningful non-zero risk of another slip given the game’s history and unusually high complexity.
- politicsPolymarket10d
Iran leadership change by...?
AI78%MKT9%Edge+69Hidden GemThe market is already heavily skewed toward No, but the provided reporting suggests the leadership change has effectively already happened through Mojtaba Khamenei’s succession. On the information given, Yes looks more likely than the current price implies if the market resolves on top-leader succession rather than regime collapse.
- pop culturePolymarketEnded
# of views of MrBeast video week 1?
AI12%MKT79%Edge-67HypedMrBeast’s next full upload is much more likely to clear 40 million views in its first week than to stay below it. The market’s Yes price looks directionally right, and I assign a high probability to No being wrong because recent launches have repeatedly opened in the tens of millions within days.