Will Zelenskyy and Putin speak?

The strongest fact pattern is that both sides continue to talk about the idea, but neither side has actually converted that rhetoric into a confirmed summit. Zelenskyy has repeatedly said he is willing to meet Putin, including in bilateral and trilateral formats, while Moscow keeps saying a meeting only makes sense once a broader package is already prepared for signing. That asymmetry matters because it means the diplomatic issue is not just scheduling; it is a fundamental disagreement over whether leaders’ talks are the mechanism for ending the war or merely the final ceremonial step after a deal is already done.

There are also reasons not to dismiss the possibility entirely. U.S. pressure and mediation have already generated movement around the broader peace process, and when major powers push hard, even previously rigid positions can soften under political pressure or battlefield changes. If the war trajectory shifts, or if a ceasefire or framework deal emerges quickly enough, a leaders’ meeting could be assembled on short notice. Still, the recent reporting points more toward lower-level or indirect talks than toward a real summit track, which usually means the meeting question is still aspirational rather than operational.

Compared with the current market price of 13% yes, my estimate is somewhat higher, but not dramatically so. The market appears to be pricing in the Kremlin’s hard line and the long history of non-meetings, which is rational; however, it may underweight the possibility of a late-breaking, externally brokered encounter if diplomatic momentum accelerates. Even so, the base rate remains low because no venue, date, or mutually accepted format has been locked in, and that makes a no outcome still the most likely result.