Will President Trump be impeached during his term?

The core reason this event remains live is that impeachment requires only a simple majority in the House, and Trump has already shown that a sufficiently aligned House can move quickly when political incentives shift. The current Republican control of Congress is a serious obstacle, but it is not decisive over a horizon that extends through the 2026 midterms and into 2028. If Democrats retake the House, they would gain subpoena power, committee control, and a formal path to articles of impeachment, which makes the market question much more about future House composition than about Senate conviction.

Against that, impeachment is still a high bar politically. Even if Democrats win the House, they may prioritize investigations, messaging, and oversight rather than a full impeachment vote unless there is a major scandal or a strong public mandate. The recent reporting also shows that much of the current pro-impeachment energy is rhetorical or advocacy-driven rather than evidence of an imminent House majority for articles. That matters because the event resolves on an actual House vote, not on public pressure or partisan noise.

Compared with the current market price of 63%, my estimate is somewhat lower. The market appears to be pricing in a fairly strong chance that Democrats regain the House and then eventually choose impeachment, but I think that chain is still too optimistic given the political cost, the need for a triggering event, and the possibility that Democrats use their majority for other goals. The market is not wildly wrong, but it does look a bit aggressive on the likelihood of an actual impeachment vote materializing before 2029.