Will the US take control of any part of Greenland?

The strongest case for Yes is that this administration has shown persistent, high-level interest in Greenland and has not treated the idea as a one-off rhetorical flourish. Recent reporting says the White House has explored multiple pathways, including purchase, a compact-type arrangement, and even claims to specific pockets of territory, which means the event is not purely theoretical. If the question is interpreted broadly as acquiring any part of Greenland, then even a narrow transfer, lease-like sovereignty arrangement, or special territorial concession would satisfy it, and that is more plausible than a full island-wide annexation.

The strongest case against Yes is that all concrete reporting still points away from a signed transfer of sovereignty. Denmark and Greenland have repeatedly rejected a takeover, Greenlandic public opinion is strongly resistant, and the current diplomatic track appears focused on expanded U.S. military access and economic influence rather than territorial acquisition. That makes the legal and political hurdles very high, because any actual acquisition would likely need at least Danish consent and some form of Greenlandic political support, neither of which is evident in the available reporting.

Against the current market, 33% is above the 25% price but not dramatically so. I think the market is somewhat underpricing the chance of a limited, negotiated outcome because the administration seems committed enough to keep probing for creative structures, and the phrasing “any part of Greenland” creates room for a smaller deal. Still, the market is broadly right to discount the event heavily because the default path remains a non-sovereign arrangement rather than an acquisition.