Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

United Russia is still the strongest position in the race to gain the most seats, and the basic structural reason is simple: it already dominates the State Duma and begins from a much larger seat base than any rival. Recent polling and trend data place United Russia well ahead of other parties, with FOM showing it at 56.5% and projecting 284 representatives, while PolitPro’s trend also keeps it in front and implies a large governing majority if current conditions persist. Because the market question is about which party gains the most seats relative to its current total, the incumbent’s combination of broad baseline support and advantaged district structure makes it the natural frontrunner.

The strongest case against United Russia is not that it is trailing, but that the market is not asking who wins overall; it is asking which party adds the most seats versus before the election. That creates some room for a challenger like New People if it expands from a smaller base in the right districts, especially because some polling snapshots have shown it as the main alternative option in market pricing and in public survey trends. Still, the gap is large, and even the more challenger-friendly polling cited here leaves United Russia well ahead in direct seat projections, which is why the market has kept it in the mid-50s rather than pricing a near toss-up.

The broader electoral environment also favors the incumbent. Recent reporting describes a tightly constrained opposition field, including restrictions and crackdowns that limit the ability of rivals to translate voter dissatisfaction into parliamentary gains, while Kremlin expectations reportedly still assume United Russia will hold enough support and district victories to remain dominant. That environment reduces the probability that another party can outperform United Russia in net seat gains, even if some opposition-leaning vote movements occur. The main reason not to push the probability even higher is that Russian elections can be sensitive to candidate exclusions, district-level tactical choices, and post-election reporting uncertainty, which creates some tail risk even when the frontrunner is clear.