Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?
Anthropic looks more likely to IPO first than OpenAI, despite the market currently favoring OpenAI. The evidence points to Anthropic moving earlier in the filing process and being positioned for a sooner debut, while OpenAI’s own timing has drifted toward late 2026 or 2027.
Analysis
The strongest independent read is that this market is leaning the wrong way. The available reporting says Anthropic confidentially filed before OpenAI and has been framed as targeting an earlier window, while OpenAI’s timeline has repeatedly shifted later, with several reports citing 2027 as a meaningful possibility. Because the question is which company IPOs first, the key issue is not who wants to go public sooner in principle, but who can actually clear the remaining regulatory, structuring, and market-readiness hurdles first, and that currently appears to favor Anthropic.
A confidential S-1 is only the start of the process, so the earlier filer is not guaranteed to win. But when one company is already being discussed as potentially listing in late 2026 and the other has credible reporting pointing to 2027, the earlier target matters a great deal. OpenAI also faces extra uncertainty from the scale and complexity of a potential public debut, which could slow execution even if management prefers to move quickly.
Against that backdrop, the market price implying an 83% chance that OpenAI or Anthropic IPOs first seems too high for OpenAI specifically and too low for the more ambiguous race dynamic. The data support Anthropic as the marginal favorite, but not overwhelmingly so, because both companies still face substantial execution risk and either could slip. I would therefore price this as a moderate Anthropic edge rather than a near-lock for OpenAI.
Arguments
For
- Anthropic has the clearest reported timing advantage based on the sequence of confidential filings.
- OpenAI’s own reported 2027 drift creates a plausible path for Anthropic to list first even if both remain on track.
Against
- OpenAI still has strong incentives to move quickly and could surprise with an earlier 2026 debut.
- Public reporting around IPO timing is noisy, and confidential processes can change rapidly without warning.
Key drivers
- Anthropic appears to have filed earlier and been positioned for an earlier IPO window.
- OpenAI’s reported timing has shifted toward late 2026 or 2027, increasing delay risk.
Risk factors
- A confidential filing does not determine the actual listing order, and either company could accelerate or stall.
- Market conditions, SEC review, restructuring, and internal readiness could easily change the sequence.
Scenarios
Best case
Anthropic stays on its earlier path and completes the IPO before OpenAI, validating the current reporting that it moved first and was targeting an earlier window.
Most likely
Anthropic edges OpenAI in timing, but the gap is narrow and both offerings remain vulnerable to delays that could push the outcome further into 2027.
Worst case
OpenAI accelerates, Anthropic delays, and OpenAI reaches the public markets first despite the later reported target dates.
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