Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
2026 is very unlikely to be the hottest year on record; the consensus from NASA, NOAA, and Carbon Brief projects it will rank as the second-warmest year, with 2025 (or 2024 depending on dataset) confirmed as the current record holder.
Analysis
Current mid-year data and expert projections indicate that 2026 will most likely finish as the second-warmest year on record, not the hottest. NASA's mid-year 2026 update explicitly reaffirmed that 2025 was the hottest year globally, while NOAA and Carbon Brief confirm 2026 is on track to be second due to strong El Niño effects that are not exceeding 2025 levels. Year-to-date temperature data for January–June 2026 ranks as the third-warmest for that period globally, with ocean temperatures second-warmest, suggesting the annual average will fall short of the 2025 record.
Multiple authoritative agencies including NASA, NOAA, Berkeley Earth, and the Met Office converge on a ranking between second and fourth for 2026, with the central estimate being second place. Carbon Brief specifically assigns a 62% probability that 2026 ends as the second-warmest year, while acknowledging a 19% chance it could surpass 2024 to become the hottest. James Hansen's outlier projection that 2026 will surpass previous records contradicts the more recent official updates from major climate monitoring agencies that have already confirmed 2025 as the record holder.
The market-implied probability of 32.5% for the 'Yes' outcome appears elevated relative to the scientific consensus, which suggests only a 19% chance of 2026 being the hottest year. Regional extremes in the UK and Europe, including June 2026 being the hottest June ever recorded on the European continent, do not translate to a global record. The high baseline set by 2025, which was the UK's hottest year since 1884, creates a formidable threshold that 2026 is struggling to surpass globally despite its extreme regional heat events.
Arguments
For
- James Hansen projects 2026 will surpass 2024 and potentially 2025 to become hottest year
- Carbon Brief acknowledges a 19% chance that 2026 will be the warmest year on record
Against
- NASA and NOAA have explicitly confirmed 2025 as the hottest year on record globally
- Carbon Brief's best estimate is a 62% chance that 2026 ends as second-warmest year
- January-June 2026 temperature data ranks as third-warmest for that period, below 2025 levels
- Multiple agencies including Berkeley Earth, Met Office, and Dr Schmidt converge on 2026 ranking 2nd-4th
Key drivers
- NASA and NOAA confirmation that 2025 is the current record holder
- Carbon Brief's 62% probability estimate for 2026 ranking second-warmest
- Year-to-date temperature data showing 2026 January-June as third-warmest globally
- Strong El Niño event driving high temperatures but not exceeding 2025 levels
Risk factors
- James Hansen's outlier projection that 2026 will surpass previous records
- 19% chance identified by Carbon Brief that 2026 could become the hottest year
- Potential data revisions that could alter 2025 or 2024 rankings
- Unpredictable climate sensitivity effects from ongoing El Niño conditions
Scenarios
Best case
2026 surpasses 2025 and becomes the hottest year on record, driven by extreme climate sensitivity and prolonged El Niño effects exceeding all previous temperature anomalies.
Most likely
2026 finishes as the second-warmest year on record, with 2025 confirmed as the record holder, consistent with the consensus from NASA, NOAA, Carbon Brief, and Berkeley Earth.
Worst case
2026 ranks as the fourth-warmest year on record, falling significantly below both 2025 and 2024 due to unexpected cooling trends or data revisions that elevate earlier years.
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