2026: Trump's dream year?

The core reason to lean yes is that the market backdrop already looks close to the bull narrative described in the prompt. Major indices are at record highs, year-to-date gains are solid, and earnings growth remains strong enough to support the idea that AI-related productivity and pro-investment policy are reinforcing each other rather than canceling out. If the economy keeps expanding briskly through the second half of 2026, the case for saying the bull scenario occurred becomes much stronger even without a perfect straight-line move to the most aggressive upside targets.

Against that, the bar for a clean yes is high because this is not just a question of whether markets are up, but whether the broader Trump bull thesis fully materializes by year-end. That requires continued earnings outperformance, no meaningful growth scare, and enough policy credibility to keep investors willing to pay elevated multiples in what may be a later-stage cycle. Political headwinds, including weak approval and instability risk, make it harder for the narrative to be sustained even if financial markets remain constructive.

The current market price around 5% looks too low to me if the event is resolved by whether the Trump-friendly macro and market backdrop is visibly intact in 2026. The market may be assuming that the thesis requires an exceptionally rare, near-parabolic outcome, when in practice the event could be satisfied by a more ordinary but still impressive continuation of the current run. I would still not assign a majority probability, but the pricing appears to understate how much of the bull case is already unfolding.