Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?
Anthropic still looks more likely to IPO first, mainly because it filed earlier and OpenAI’s timeline appears to have slipped toward 2027. I assign a solid but not overwhelming edge because either company could still delay, and public-market conditions can change quickly.
Analysis
Anthropic has the clearest first-mover advantage right now. It filed its confidential S-1 before OpenAI, has not been associated with any public delay, and is being described as targeting a late-2026 debut. That matters because once a company is already in the IPO pipeline, the main remaining risks are market deterioration, regulatory friction, or a strategic pause; absent evidence of those, the earlier filer is usually the likelier first IPO.
OpenAI, by contrast, appears to have lost momentum on timing. The reported shift from a September 2026 target to 2027 is a meaningful negative, especially when paired with Altman’s insistence on a $1 trillion valuation and the internal debate over whether to wait for better reporting readiness and market conditions. Even if OpenAI remains the higher-profile name, prestige does not guarantee speed, and a founder-led desire for a premium valuation often pushes an offering later rather than earlier.
The main reason not to push the probability even higher is that both companies are still private and neither IPO date is locked. Anthropic could still decide that market conditions are too weak or that it wants to optimize for valuation, while OpenAI could reverse course if the market strengthens or if competitive pressure motivates a faster listing. Still, the balance of evidence favors Anthropic first, and I think the market is slightly too confident but not wildly off: 84% seems high given the real possibility that both companies delay, so my estimate is closer to the high-70s than the mid-80s.
Arguments
For
- Anthropic has the earlier filing date and no reported delay, which is the strongest signal for being first.
- OpenAI’s valuation rigidity and internal debate make a 2026 debut less likely than the market once expected.
Against
- Confidential filings do not guarantee execution, and either company can postpone without much warning.
- OpenAI may have more incentive and resources to move quickly if it decides timing is strategically important.
Key drivers
- Anthropic filed its confidential S-1 before OpenAI, giving it the earliest formal IPO process.
- OpenAI’s reported shift toward 2027 materially weakens its chances of being first.
Risk factors
- Anthropic could still delay if market conditions worsen or if it prefers a higher valuation.
- OpenAI could accelerate unexpectedly if investor demand improves or strategic pressure increases.
Scenarios
Best case
Anthropic proceeds on its current late-2026 path while OpenAI waits until 2027 or later, making Anthropic the clear first IPO.
Most likely
Anthropic reaches the public markets first, but the timing remains fluid enough that either firm could still push the offering back.
Worst case
Anthropic slips into 2027 or beyond while OpenAI regains momentum and lists first, overturning the current order.
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