Who will be Trump's next Attorney General?
Todd Blanche is still the clear favorite because he is Trump’s formal nominee and already serving as acting attorney general, but the confirmation fight is meaningfully riskier than the market suggests. I make Blanche about a 73% favorite, with Lee Zeldin the main fallback if Senate resistance hardens.
Analysis
Blanche has the strongest starting position of any contender because Trump has formally nominated him and he is already sitting in the role on an acting basis. That institutional advantage matters a lot, since most of the path to becoming the permanent attorney general is now about surviving Senate confirmation rather than winning a new nomination battle from scratch.
The reason I would not treat him as a near-lock is that the hearing describes a genuinely contested confirmation, not a routine one. Two Republican senators are already uncommitted, Democrats are uniformly opposed, and the criticism from DOJ alumni, the New York bar referral, and the questions about independence all create a credible path to defections or a forced retreat. If the GOP margin slips much further, the nomination can still fail even though Blanche remains the nominal front-runner.
The market’s 83% price looks a bit too bullish to me because it appears to assume party discipline will hold cleanly through a politically messy process. I still think Blanche is more likely than not by a comfortable margin, but I would price the risk of a failed confirmation, withdrawal, or replacement nominee higher than the market does, which pushes more probability onto Zeldin and a smaller amount onto the remaining names.
Arguments
For
- Trump has already made Blanche the official nominee, and presidents usually get their cabinet choice through when their party stays aligned.
- Blanche’s incumbency as acting attorney general gives him practical legitimacy that the other contenders do not have.
Against
- The hearing is unusually contentious, and the reported GOP hesitation means confirmation is not automatic.
- The combined criticism from senators, DOJ alumni, and the New York bar suggests the nomination faces real institutional resistance.
Key drivers
- Blanche has Trump’s explicit backing and already occupies the acting AG post, which gives him momentum and visibility.
- The Senate math is the decisive constraint, because a small number of Republican defections could still block confirmation.
- Lee Zeldin is the most plausible replacement if Blanche stumbles, so any weakening of Blanche’s odds transfers mainly to Zeldin.
Risk factors
- A bad hearing moment could crystallize wavering Republican opposition and turn a manageable fight into a failed confirmation.
- If Blanche withdraws or is defeated, the market may rapidly reprice toward a different nominee rather than treating the contest as settled.
Scenarios
Best case
Blanche survives the hearing, holds enough Republican support on the floor, and is confirmed as Trump’s permanent attorney general.
Most likely
Blanche ultimately wins confirmation, but only after a contentious process that leaves him with a narrower margin and more political baggage than the market implies.
Worst case
The confirmation collapses under Senate resistance, Blanche withdraws or is defeated, and Trump pivots to a different nominee such as Zeldin.
Outcomes
| Outcome | AI | MKT |
|---|---|---|
| Todd Blanche | 73% | 83% |
| Lee Zeldin | 15% | 6% |
| Ron DeSantis | 4% | 2% |
| Jeanine Pirro | 5% | 2% |
| Harmeet Dhillon | 3% | 1% |
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