Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Benjamin Netanyahu remains a real contender because Israel’s opposition still has to translate polling leads into a working governing coalition, but the recent polling and rivalry dynamics make him a clear underdog. I put the chance of him being the next prime minister at 30%.
Analysis
The latest political picture is unfavorable for Netanyahu. The election is now set for October 27, 2026, and the most recent reporting and polling over the past week show the anti-Netanyahu camp organizing more effectively, with rivals consolidating and one major poll showing his personal trust numbers lagging badly. That matters because this market is not asking whether Likud does well, but whether Netanyahu personally is sworn in again after the election. Right now, the direction of travel is still against him.
At the same time, Israel’s parliamentary system gives Netanyahu meaningful paths back even when he is unpopular. He has spent years surviving by stitching together narrow coalitions, exploiting fragmentation among opponents, and relying on disciplined right-wing and religious partners. Even if the opposition has a seat advantage, it still needs to agree on a governing formula, a prime ministerial nominee, and a coalition agreement that can hold together after the vote. That is the main reason his win probability is not negligible even with weak polling.
The biggest challenge to a Netanyahu comeback is that the recent anti-Netanyahu bloc looks more credible than in past cycles. Former rivals have joined forces, and newer leadership figures such as Gadi Eisenkot have gained traction, while recent coverage suggests Netanyahu’s governing camp is still being battered by judicial conflict, coalition strain, and public fatigue after years of crisis politics. The market’s current price already reflects that he is less likely than not, and after weighing incumbency against the trend in the latest seven days, I think the no side deserves a solid favorite status.
My read is that the most likely outcome is that Netanyahu remains competitive but falls short of the coalition arithmetic needed to return as prime minister. The path to yes exists, but it probably requires either a fragmented opposition, a weaker-than-expected turnout or vote efficiency for his bloc, or an after-election bargaining breakthrough that looks hard but not impossible in Israeli politics.
Arguments
For
- Arguments for Yes: Netanyahu is still the most experienced coalition builder in Israeli politics, which gives him outsized leverage if the election produces a fragmented Knesset.
- Arguments for Yes: The opposition’s success depends on not only winning seats but also agreeing on a single governing plan, and that is often where Israeli anti-Netanyahu alliances have broken down.
- Arguments for Yes: Security and crisis politics can still help Netanyahu if voters rally around continuity or if campaign events shift attention back to deterrence and wartime leadership.
Against
- Arguments against: The newest polling and reporting over the past week point to continued erosion in Netanyahu’s personal standing and stronger opposition coordination than before.
- Arguments against: Recent trust and suitability numbers suggest that even some voters who dislike the opposition may still prefer almost anyone else over Netanyahu as prime minister.
- Arguments against: His coalition partners and internal right-wing rivals create more paths to instability than to a clean post-election majority.
Key drivers
- Whether the anti-Netanyahu bloc can remain united long enough to convert polling strength into an actual governing coalition.
- Whether Likud and its religious-right partners can maximize seat efficiency enough to keep Netanyahu viable in coalition talks.
- Whether recent judicial and constitutional conflict deepens voter backlash against the incumbent camp or instead mobilizes his base.
Risk factors
- A late campaign security shock could still reshape public opinion and narrow the gap for Netanyahu.
- Opposition fragmentation after the vote could hand Netanyahu a second chance even if he trails in seats.
- Polling volatility remains high, and Israeli elections have a history of producing coalition outcomes that differ from pre-election expectations.
Scenarios
Best case
Netanyahu’s bloc performs better than expected, the opposition cannot settle on a governing leader, and coalition bargaining ends with him retaining enough support to be sworn in again.
Most likely
Netanyahu stays a major campaign force but loses the post-election coalition fight, leaving an alternative opposition-led government more likely than a fourth act for him.
Worst case
The opposition’s alliance holds, it wins a workable majority or near-majority, and a credible alternative prime minister is chosen before Netanyahu can assemble a replacement coalition.
Outcomes
| Outcome | AI | MKT |
|---|---|---|
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 30% | 36% |
| Other / another PM | 70% | 65% |
More from this day
- techPolymarketEnded
Best AI model on July 18?
AI14%MKT93%Edge-79HypedI think claude-opus-4-6-thinking is materially less likely than the market price suggests to be the overall #1 model on July 18, 2026. The current leaderboard evidence points to Claude Fable 5 as the incumbent leader, so I put Yes at 14%.
- HealthKalshi2y
What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?
AI80%MKT28%Edge+52Hidden GemAssuming the market's binary question is whether the 4‑year (2025–2028) average annual measles cases will be >= 2,000, I assess an 80% probability that the average will meet or exceed that threshold.
- EconomicsKalshi2y
Will there be a Trump economic boom?
AI8%MKT51%Edge-43HypedIndependent assessment: very unlikely — I assign an 8% chance that any U.S. quarterly real GDP (annualized) will exceed 5% in Q1 2025–Q4 2028. The data and policy environment point strongly against a sustained or one‑off 5%+ quarter, though low‑probability shocks could still produce a spike.