Elon Musk # tweets July 13 - July 15, 2026?

The main reason to favor Yes is that Elon Musk’s recent posting pace is high but not extreme enough to make 40 posts in 48 hours a default outcome. Recent tracking shows roughly 15 posts per day over the latest full week, with a faster burst around the Grok 4.5 launch and some days reaching the high teens or low twenties. At that pace, a two-day window usually lands in the low-to-mid 30s, which is comfortably below the threshold unless he keeps up an unusually intense cadence throughout the entire period.

The calendar setup also helps the under. This market starts Sunday afternoon Eastern and ends Tuesday midday Eastern, which means it captures part of Sunday, all of Monday, and part of Tuesday. That is a busy stretch, but it is not the most post-heavy part of his weekly rhythm, and the historical pattern suggests the first and last partial days often matter more than people expect. If he behaves close to his recent baseline, the total should come in under 40 with room to spare.

The biggest reason to keep this from being a stronger Yes is the current news flow. Musk has had fresh material around Grok 4.5, Tesla’s robotaxi expansion, and ongoing legal headlines, all of which can trigger quote-posts and reposts. Even so, those catalysts usually create short bursts rather than sustained all-day posting marathons. Unless a new controversy or product announcement breaks during the window, the more likely path is a steady but moderate stream that finishes in the 30s rather than the 40s or higher.