Will President Trump be impeached during his term?

**Stage 1 — Blind analysis (ignore market prices):**

The House is actively debating and voting on articles of impeachment today, which is the single most important proximate event. Historically, once a chamber schedules and conducts a floor vote on articles that have been reported out of committee, the likelihood of passage is high unless there is a sudden, large-scale defection from the majority party. Key structural facts favor passage: (1) the House leadership chose to bring articles to the floor after committee work, implying leadership confidence in the vote count; (2) the floor debate is live and public, making last-minute whip changes possible but also costly politically for members who break with their party; and (3) the window for another House to impeach before Jan 20, 2029 is limited to this Congress, so urgency is real.

Balancing those facts against countervailing possibilities — narrow majority, potential defections, negotiation over wording, or procedural delays — I estimate the probability that the House will pass at least one article of impeachment at **~78%**. I treat "impeached" here in the conventional legal/political sense: the House adopting one or more articles of impeachment (not conviction in the Senate). Conviction/removal in the Senate is a separate and much lower-probability event because it requires a two‑thirds majority.

Why 78% rather than near-certain? Important uncertainties remain: whip counts can change late; some moderates/centrists are politically vulnerable and may defect; a successful procedural maneuver could postpone or alter the vote; and public reaction or new exculpatory evidence could swing a handful of votes. But overall, the balance of incentives and actions taken by House leadership push the posterior well above coin-flip.

**Stage 2 — Market calibration (look at current market prices):**

The market prices show Yes: 0.64, No: 0.36. My independent probability (78%) is meaningfully higher than the market (64%). Possible explanations for the gap:

- *Market conflation with conviction/removal*: Some traders may be pricing the poll as including the requirement of a Senate conviction (which is far less likely), effectively discounting House impeachment because they care about the ultimate removal. If traders conflate "impeached" with "convicted/removed," they will anchor prices lower. - *Uncertainty discount and risk premia*: With intense political uncertainty, markets often apply a discount to binary outcomes that are close to current news, especially when the event is ongoing and information leakage is asymmetric. Traders hedge against late-breaking surprises; that lowers the market-implied probability relative to my read of the underlying fundamentals. - *Liquidity and trader composition*: Large event volume (441k contracts) means many speculative players and hedgers are active. Hedgers (e.g., political actors, funds) may short-Yes to manage exposure, pushing price down. Conversely, if many retail traders already bid Yes earlier, market could swing either way—current price might reflect those flows rather than fundamentals. - *Possibility market already embeds some risk of procedural challenge or delay*: Even if the floor vote is scheduled, markets might be cautious because contested procedures, re-referral, or a tie in the House could upset expectations.

Overall, I read the market as slightly conservative relative to the on-the-ground parliamentary reality. If you believe my independent assessment of House whip discipline, leadership confidence, and the incentives pushing the vote to passage, the market appears to underprice the chance of impeachment by roughly 14 percentage points. That gap could represent a tradable edge if you also accept the risk of late surprises.

**Addendum on Senate conviction:** If the question were instead interpreted as "Will the President be convicted (removed) by the Senate?" my independent probability would be substantially lower (<10%), because conviction requires a 2/3 Senate vote and typically bipartisan crossover of substantial magnitude.