Will President Trump be impeached during his term?

**Stage 1 — Blind analysis (ignore market prices):**

*Facts and immediate context:* The House is conducting floor debate on articles of impeachment today with a vote expected later today. Under the Constitution, impeachment is complete when a majority of the House votes to adopt articles. A subsequent Senate trial determines removal, not impeachment itself. Given the floor debate and scheduled vote, the procedural path to an impeachment vote is open and active.

*Reasoning toward an independent probability:* The key hurdle to the "Yes" outcome is only a single House majority vote. The existence of a scheduled, widely reported floor vote implies either (a) House leadership believes it has the votes or (b) leadership is prepared to force a vote for political reasons even if razor-thin. Historically, the House has impeached presidents when the majority party was motivated and had sufficient cohesion to carry a motion. The decision to bring articles to the floor typically reflects that leadership has a workable coalition or sees strategic value in making the vote regardless of marginal risk.

I therefore treat the scheduled floor vote as a strong signal that impeachment (the House adopting articles) is far more likely than not. Additional reasons to increase my estimate: - Multiple news outlets report the vote as imminent with no signs of delay or cancellation. - The political incentives for the majority party to hold a vote when leadership has committed are strong; whipping members and using procedural levers is common. - Even if today's vote were to fail narrowly, the House could reintroduce articles later — there is a long window through Jan 20, 2029 for impeachment to occur.

Countervailing considerations that reduce certainty and cap my estimate below 100%: - Narrow majorities and last-minute defections can and do flip expected outcomes. If the majority is slim and some members balk, the vote could fail. - Procedural surprises (tabling, refer to committee, Speaker maneuvering) or a last-minute political deal could avert a floor vote or change its text so it does not achieve passage. - Public and electoral calculations ahead of the 2026 midterms could cause some members to vote against impeachment even if party leadership wants it.

Balancing the strong, immediate procedural signal (floor debate + scheduled vote) against the realistic risk of defections and procedural gambits yields an independent assessment of **~85%** that the President will be impeached by the House before Jan 20, 2029.

**Stage 2 — Market calibration (look at current market price):**

Current market: Yes 0.62 / No 0.38 with heavy volume (≈441k contracts). My independent probability (85%) is substantially higher than the market-implied 62%.

Why the market might be lower than my independent estimate (potential underpricing of Yes): - Traders may be conservatively pricing in the nontrivial chance of last-minute defections or procedural pivots (tabling, referral to committee), especially if the House majority is narrow. Markets often discount outcomes to reflect the structural volatility of legislative votes. - Some traders may be conflating "impeachment" with "removal" (Senate conviction), and therefore underweight the simpler House-majority threshold. Confusion between those concepts can depress the price for the technically easier outcome. - News friction and latency: the vote is imminent within the same trading day; market participants may be waiting for the definitive roll-call result rather than pricing an event that could still flip. Real-time markets can lag breaking procedural votes. - Risk-aversion and liquidation: Traders who bought Yes earlier might be locking profits before the vote, pushing price down temporarily despite high underlying probability.

Why the market could be correctly lower than my independent estimate (market pricing potential upside risks I underweighted): - If leadership has signaled willingness to hold a vote primarily for messaging, they might tolerate a narrow loss to achieve political theater; markets may internalize this play-acting scenario. - There could be credible last-minute commitments from swing members to oppose articles due to counsel, constituent pressure, or private agreements; markets with access to such on-the-ground signals may be right to discount.

Conclusion of calibration: Given the immediacy of the floor vote and the constitutional definition that House passage equals impeachment, I view the current market price (62%) as *conservative* and likely undervaluing the true probability. The most plausible explanation is that the market is factoring in procedural risk, late defections, and trader caution. If the reported floor vote proceeds as publicized and leadership control is sufficient, I expect the market to reprice upward toward the high 70s–90s after the roll-call results.

(For clarity: my reported prediction_percentage above is my independent assessment, not a reflection of the market price.)