Will President Trump be impeached during his term?

**Stage 1 — Blind analysis (ignore market prices):**

- *Current factual baseline:* As of July 9, 2026 the public record shows an active House floor debate and an expected vote on articles of impeachment, but no confirmed successful House vote. The arrest of an active-duty Air Force major who publicly demanded impeachment has raised the political temperature and generated sustained media attention. The White House denies wrongdoing. There is no confirmed Senate trial outcome because impeachment (House vote) is the immediate binary event we must forecast.

- *How I translate facts to probability:* The single most decisive factor for whether a President is "impeached" (per the event wording) is a House majority vote to adopt articles of impeachment. Historically, impeachment votes are rare but political incentives matter: when a House majority (especially a narrowly divided one) believes political advantage or constitutional obligation favors impeachment, leadership will press a vote. Given (a) active floor debate, (b) articles apparently ready for a vote, and (c) a high-profile catalyst energizing the issue, the baseline probability that the House will succeed in impeaching before the term ends is substantially greater than 50%.

I decompose the 72% estimate as follows: a near-term vote window (days–weeks from the current debate) has about a 60–75% chance of producing a majority for impeachment depending on the cohesion of the majority caucus and the strength of the articles; if the near-term vote fails, there remain multiple later windows (new revelations, hearings, or political calculations ahead of the 2028 campaign) that could still generate a successful impeachment. Aggregating immediate likelihood plus residual tail risk across the remainder of the term yields my independent 72% probability.

- *Key qualitative reasoning:* The presence of a public, widely covered floor debate with articles ready is a strong signal that the majority leadership believes they can secure at least a bare majority or are willing to force the issue for political reasons. The arrest of Major Watson increases public salience and may reduce political costs for swing Democrats who might otherwise abstain. Conversely, impeachment remains a highly partisan and reputationally risky action; if the evidence is weak or a number of moderate members resist, the probability could fall meaningfully. After weighing those countervailing forces, my best-estimate independent probability is 72%.

**Stage 2 — Market calibration (compare independent probability to current market):**

- *Market snapshot:* Yes = 61%, No = 39%, with substantial volume (~440k contracts). The market is pricing a majority chance but lower than my 72% independent view.

- *Why the market might be lower (rational reasons):* - **Uncertainty about timing and evidence:** Traders may discount a near-term House vote succeeding because transcripts/videos referenced are not definitive proof of a vote outcome; markets punish ambiguity. Some traders may be interpreting the situation conservatively, waiting for a recorded vote before increasing Yes exposure. - **Risk of defections among vulnerable incumbents:** Markets may overweight the possibility that moderate or vulnerable members will defect to avoid electoral blowback, which could sink a narrow impeachment vote. - **Information asymmetry and impatience:** Some liquidity providers may prefer to wait for explicit roll-call results or additional legal findings; that creates measured pricing below my more optimistic aggregation of future windows.

- *Why the market might be underpricing the event (my contrarian view):* - **High baseline signal already present:** Active floor debate and reported expected vote are high-information signals; many political outcomes never reach this stage. Markets sometimes under-react to procedural advancement and over-weight surprise risk. - **Multiple opportunities before Jan 20, 2029:** Even if an immediate vote fails, the probability of impeachment across the remainder of the term is non-trivial because new evidence, hearings, or political shifts can reopen the process. Markets often treat the question as binary on a single near-term event instead of an aggregate probability across the entire term. - **Catalytic events raising likelihood:** The arrest of a uniformed officer at the Capitol and continuing media focus materially raise political pressure; market participants may be underestimating the intensity of that pressure.

- *Calibration conclusion:* The market price at 61% is informative and indicates a majority-view consistent with my direction of belief, but I believe it is modestly undervaluing the cumulative probability of impeachment through Jan 20, 2029. Given the procedural stage and tail opportunities, my independent 72% implies a trading edge for someone willing to take the other side of the market, though this edge is not extreme and is sensitive to evidence released in the coming days. High volume supports the view that substantial information is already priced in, so this is a modest, not a large, mispricing.