Will President Trump be impeached during his term?

**Stage 1 — Blind Analysis (ignore market prices)**

There are credible, sustained drivers that make impeachment possible within the 2026–2029 window, but multiple political and institutional obstacles reduce the chance that the House will actually adopt articles of impeachment. Key factual anchors: ongoing criminal investigations and prior indictments create continued fodder for impeachment advocates; a House floor debate in July 2026 shows organized congressional appetite among some members to pursue articles; and the 2026 midterm elections (Nov 2026) create a critical inflection point for which party controls the House for the remainder of the term. Taken together, those factors make impeachment a live possibility — but not a slam-dunk.

Important mechanics and historical patterns inform probability: impeachment requires only a House majority, but rarely is it pursued unless the opposition party controls the House or an incumbent’s conduct creates broad cross-party outrage. Historically, impeachment has been used by the opposition party (Johnson, Clinton, Trump I) or in extraordinary circumstances. If Democrats retake the House in Nov 2026, the political incentive to impeach rises materially — but Democrats will weigh the electoral fallout, evidentiary threshold, and competing priorities (governance, 2028 election positioning). If Republicans retain House control after 2026, impeachment still could occur but only under scenarios of either overwhelming new evidence that fractures GOP unity or if a significant number of Republicans break with the president; both are less probable.

I estimate the probability as follows (informal model): assign a meaningful chance the House flips to Democrats in 2026, then conditional on a Democratic House a moderate-to-high probability they pursue and pass articles; conditional on a Republican House, a low probability of intra-party impeachment. Including continuing legal exposure and the long time horizon (roughly 31 months from July 2026 to Jan 20, 2029) I reach an independent assessment of 48% for impeachment occurring before Jan 20, 2029.

Arguments that move the probability upward include sustained investigative output (new charges, incriminating evidence, cooperating witnesses), high-profile events that galvanize bipartisan condemnation, or a decisive Democratic takeover of the House in 2026. Arguments that move it downward include the political cost calculus for Democrats (who may prioritize other goals), successful legal defenses that blunt the political narrative, or a GOP House that remains cohesive and refuses to impeach.

**Stage 2 — Market Calibration (compare independent probability to market price Yes: 62%)**

The market currently prices impeachment at ~62%, materially higher than my independent 48% assessment. Several plausible reasons the market might be pricing higher:

- Traders may be overweighting the immediate July 2026 House debate and conflating active discussion with likelihood of adoption; visibility and news cycles tend to move prices more than underlying probabilities. - Market participants may be placing substantial weight on the probability Democrats retake the House in Nov 2026 and then act quickly to impeach; if bettors implicitly assume a high (>60%) chance of Democratic House plus near-certain impeachment conditional on that, the market will climb above my estimate. - Liquidity and concentrated positions (large hedges or partisan bets) can push price away from a neutral expected-value assessment; emotional or partisan money often skews prices on politically charged contracts. - Public confusion between criminal indictments and impeachment could cause bettors to conflate legal vulnerability with near-certain congressional action.

Why the market may be mispricing the event (my view): it appears to overstate the ease and political desirability of impeachment. A Democratic majority does not automatically translate into impeachment; party leaders will weigh the consequences including potential backlash in 2028 and the low likelihood of conviction in the Senate (thus impeachment would be symbolic). The market may be reflecting momentum and sensational headlines rather than careful calibration of conditional probabilities (house control × willingness to impeach × triggering evidence). That said, the market may be correctly factoring in scenarios I discount (e.g., a cascade of new, clearly impeachable evidence or a dramatic, bipartisan political crisis), which would raise the true probability toward current prices.

Conclusion: My independent probability (48%) is lower than the market (62%). I view the market as biased toward action (impeachment) because of short-term news salience and bettors projecting partisan incentives; the equilibrium price may therefore be overstating the likelihood unless a major, unmistakable new scandal or a clear Democratic House takeover occurs.