Will President Trump be impeached during his term?

**Stage 1 — Blind analysis (ignore market prices):**

As of June 30, 2026 the House is on the floor conducting a historic debate and a vote on articles of impeachment is expected later the same day. Impeachment (a House majority vote on articles) is procedurally straightforward compared with removal (which requires a two-thirds Senate vote). Given that the chamber has advanced to floor debate, the evidence threshold for bringing articles has already been met by at least a portion of leadership and committee chairs. That means the marginal hurdle that remains is assembling a simple majority of House members to vote Yes. Historically, once a chamber moves to a floor debate and schedules a vote, the chance the chamber ultimately votes to impeach is materially higher than if articles have only been referred to committee. Additionally, over the remainder of this presidency (through Jan 20, 2029) there are multiple pathways for impeachment: the immediate vote under discussion, additional sets of articles tied to subsequent revelations, or renewed efforts if House control shifts. Those multiple, independent opportunities increase the cumulative probability that the House will impeach at least once before the term ends.

Balancing factors: the House majority composition, party discipline, and political costs still matter. If the Speaker or leadership actively resists, or if a narrow majority remains intact and disciplined against impeachment, the floor vote can fail. Public opinion and midterm outcomes can also blunt momentum. But given those who control the scheduling have moved to a floor debate and a vote is scheduled, the immediate probability of a successful impeachment in the House is well above coin-flip. Aggregating the immediate probability with the non-zero probability of future impeachment attempts across the remaining ~2.5 years yields a high cumulative chance.

Quantitatively, a credible model: assign ~65–80% chance the immediate/near-term floor effort succeeds given floor scheduling and leadership calculations (I land near 70% for the immediate vote converting to impeachment), plus a non-trivial residual chance (10–15%) of a later successful impeachment if the immediate vote fails. Combining those gives an independent posterior around 75–80%. I set my independent probability at **78%** to reflect the present momentum plus the cumulative tail risk from future attempts.

**Stage 2 — Market calibration (look at current market prices):**

The market price shows Yes = 0.62. That is meaningfully below my independent assessment (78%). Possible reasons for that gap:

- Market participants may be conflating "impeached" with "removed" (Senate conviction). If some traders interpret the question incorrectly, they underprice the simpler House-majority event. - Liquidity and trader risk aversion: the market has sizable volume but still can be anchored by early positions or a structural bias toward underpricing politically risky outcomes. Some participants may be slow to update probabilities during an intraday event (the vote is expected later today), so the market has not fully reflected on-the-floor developments. - Uncertainty aversion and information asymmetry: some traders may expect last-minute procedural moves (tabling, postponement, or substitutions of articles) that could reduce the chance of a straight-up House impeachment today, so they discount the immediate probability more than I do. - Conversely, there is genuine uncertainty about whether the scheduled vote will produce the required simple majority; traders who overweight party-line loyalty and the difficulty of peeling off members are rational to put the probability lower.

Given these possibilities, the market at 62% offers value relative to my 78% independent assessment if you believe the House calendar and floor debate strongly signal an imminent impeachment. If you instead believe the vote faces credible procedural or whip-level obstacles, the market may be closer to the truth. My view is that those obstacles are surmountable and the market is underpricing the likelihood by ~16 percentage points. Traders should watch intraday whip counts, statements from key swing members, and whether the motion actually reaches a roll-call vote — these items can quickly close the gap.

In short: my independent assessment is 78% (see above). The market at 62% is lower, likely due to confusion about definitions, risk aversion, or a cautious read of whip math; I lean toward the market being conservatively priced and therefore underestimating the probability of at least one House impeachment before Jan 20, 2029.