Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Market-implied probability (Yes ~42.5%) and substantial event volume indicate active trading and meaningful disagreement about pace of recovery; I start from that market signal but adjust modestly upward because the 60-call threshold is attainable from normal pre-disruption baselines and occasional short-term rebounds can lift a 7-day average into range. The resolution rule requires a 7-day moving average at or above 60, which is a stricter test than a single-day spike and means daily counts need to be sustained at roughly >=60 ships for a week or higher if previous days are lower, making timing and persistence crucial.

Historically, the Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's busiest chokepoints for tankers and general cargo, so absent sustained escalation the channel tends to revert toward pre-crisis traffic levels; if the principal inhibitors (targeted attacks, insurance spikes, or official closures) have abated or been mitigated by naval escorts and insurance-market normalization, returning to a 7-day moving average >=60 by late July is plausible. Conversely, even isolated incidents or renewed targeting of merchant shipping can depress traffic quickly because carriers reroute, slow steam, or delay transits until risk and insurance conditions improve.

Key external drivers that will determine the outcome in the coming five weeks include the security environment (incidents, state-to-state escalations, and visible naval escort operations), commercial responses (P&I and hull war-risk premiums and owners' routing choices), and broader demand-side factors (seasonal crude and LNG flows, and scheduled commercial voyages); data quirks and IMF Portwatch reporting cadence and any late revisions also matter because the market resolves on published moving averages. Given these mixed forces and the limited time window to achieve a sustained 7-day average, I view the probability as nearly coin-flip but slightly favoring No because geopolitical tail risks remain non-negligible and the moving-average requirement raises the bar for a quick, sustained recovery.