Which Supreme Court justices will resign during Trump's term?

**Stage 1 — Blind analysis (ignore market prices):**

Justice Clarence Thomas is 78 (born June 23, 1948) and remains an active member of the Court as of June 27, 2026: he has participated in major rulings, issued solo opinions and dissents, and there are no credible reports or announcements indicating a plan to resign. Those facts point toward continuity — a justice who is still engaged generally has a lower near-term retirement probability.

Nevertheless, age is a material consideration. Over a ~3.6 year window (through Jan 20, 2029) the medical and functional risks for someone in their late 70s are non-trivial. While many justices serve into their 80s, retirement decisions are often triggered by unexpected health events, cognitive decline, or family/medical needs, not only by advance planning. Historically, some justices have timed retirements for political reasons (to ensure a like-minded successor), but Thomas is firmly conservative and therefore has *less* incentive to time a resignation for partisan advantage under a conservative president who is already in office.

Balancing these facts, my independent (blind) probability that Thomas will voluntarily resign (retire) during Trump’s term is **20%**. That number reflects: - *Downside drivers* (increase this probability): advanced age, non-zero short-term health event risk, and the real possibility of a personal or family reason prompting an unexpected departure. - *Upside drivers* (decrease this probability): active recent Court participation, lack of public or credible private indication of intent to step down, strong ideological alignment with the sitting president reducing strategic incentive, and historical tendency of Thomas to remain on the bench through advanced age.

**Stage 2 — Market calibration (look at market prices):**

The market price shows Yes at 39% and No at 61%, with substantial volume (~75k contracts). My independent 20% is materially lower than the market-implied 39% probability. Possible reasons markets are bidding Yes higher than my estimate:

- *Rumor amplification and political betting:* Prediction markets on high-profile justices attract politically motivated traders who overweight the payoff from a conservative vacancy and may act on rumors, social media chatter, or optimism about a retirement rather than on verifiable reporting. - *Conflation of outcomes:* Some bettors conflate "resignation/retirement" with any reason for vacancy (including death) or with a forced departure (scandal, impeachment pressure). Death is not the same as a voluntary resignation; markets may implicitly price broader vacancy risk, inflating Yes. - *Short-term hedging and speculative liquidity:* Traders who have positions on other justices or on nomination outcomes may buy Yes as a hedge or speculative play, artificially elevating the Yes price relative to the underlying fundamentals. - *Asymmetric payoff attraction:* Because a resignation during Trump would be a high-impact political event, bettors may overpay for the possibility (risk-seeking behavior for high-leverage outcomes).

None of these market dynamics, in my judgment, provide convincing new factual evidence that Thomas is likely to resign. However, the market could be correctly pricing private information I do not have (e.g., private health concerns, family conversations). If credible new information emerges (medical incapacitation, hospitalization, trusted reporting that he’s considering stepping down), my probability would rise quickly and the market price would be nearer fair value.

Trading implication: given my independent 20% and a market Yes price of 39%, I view the market as offering value to *sell* Yes / *buy* No (i.e., take the contrarian side), unless you have private information or a short time horizon driven by rumor-sensitive flows. If you require a safety buffer, account for a reasonable private-info premium (say 5–10%), but even then the market seems overbought relative to fundamentals.