Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?
Based on reported IPO paperwork and preparatory steps by OpenAI and the absence of similar regulatory steps from Anthropic, I assess OpenAI is substantially more likely to IPO before Anthropic; my independent probability is 80%.
Analysis
**Stage 1 — Blind analysis (ignore market prices):**
- Evidence strongly favors OpenAI having a lead. Multiple credible reports indicate OpenAI has *lodged IPO paperwork* and is in active listing preparation; by contrast, there are no public reports of Anthropic having filed comparable regulatory documents as of 2026-06-21. Lodgement is a discrete, observable step that materially increases the probability of that company completing a near-term IPO relative to peers who have not filed.
- Structural incentives push OpenAI toward being first. OpenAI's major investors (notably Microsoft) have strong incentives to monetise or realise part of their positions. OpenAI's scale, public profile, and revenue/partnership trajectory also make it the natural first candidate in a wave of large AI listings. Historically, large, strategically-backed startups with clear filing steps and visible anchor investors tend to reach market before similarly sized competitors without filings.
- Risks that reduce but do not eclipse OpenAI's lead: governance complexity (the capped-profit / mission structure), potential regulatory scrutiny of advanced AI models, and macro market conditions can all slow or postpone a filing-to-deal timeline. Nonetheless, a filed paperwork milestone typically implies active resolution of many of those issues or at least an intent to proceed quickly, which raises the baseline probability OpenAI finishes first.
- Anthropic is a fast-growing competitor with significant capital and hiring; it could accelerate unexpectedly (e.g., a decision to prioritise a rapid public listing, or a private secondary that changes incentives). However, absent observable filings, acceleration remains speculative.
Conclusion of Stage 1 (independent assessment): *Given the observable lodgement and preparatory signals for OpenAI and the lack of equivalent signals from Anthropic, I assign an 80% probability that OpenAI will IPO before Anthropic before 2040.*
**Stage 2 — Market calibration (compare to current market prices):**
- Current market price: Yes = 76.00%. My independent probability is 80% — the market is close to my view but slightly lower.
- Why the market might be a bit lower (rational calibration): - The market is pricing in non-trivial tail risks that could delay OpenAI (regulatory intervention, last-minute governance/legal hurdles, macro windows closing). These are real and can compress the chance of OpenAI completing before Anthropic. - Market participants may overweight the possibility Anthropic accelerates or that Anthropic completes a stealth filing or private-market liquidity event making it effectively 'first' in practice. - Liquidity and risk hedging: with large volume already traded, some participants may be trimming exposures or reflecting short-term news uncertainty; that can shave a few percentage points off the consensus.
- Where the market could be mispriced relative to my view: I see the market as broadly rational and well-aligned with observable facts. If anything, the market slightly understates OpenAI's lead given the concrete filing milestone — I estimate a modest ~4-point edge in favor of OpenAI beyond what the market reflects. That edge could be exploited if you have higher confidence in the permanence of the reported filings and faster time-to-deal expectations.
- Situations that would justify the market price being correct or too optimistic: if OpenAI's filing is procedural (preparatory) rather than near-final, or if regulators create multiyear delays specifically targeting frontier model deployments, then the market price is appropriate or even conservative. Similarly, if Anthropic has confidential backstage arrangements accelerating its timeline (internal shareholders pressuring for fast IPO or a surprise filing), the market's slightly lower price would be justified.
Overall calibration: The market at 76% is reasonable and largely validates the observable lead for OpenAI; my independent estimate is 80% because I give additional weight to the concreteness of reported filings and to investor incentives that favour an OpenAI-first outcome.
Arguments
For
- Argument for Yes: **OpenAI has publicly reported lodgement of IPO paperwork**, a concrete step that creates momentum and timelines not present for Anthropic.
- Argument for Yes: **Strong strategic investor base (Microsoft)** gives OpenAI both the institutional impetus and distribution channels to execute a large IPO sooner.
- Argument for Yes: **High public profile and valuation pressure** — OpenAI's brand and revenue pathways make a public exit attractive to early backers and employees.
- Argument for Yes: **Reported preparatory signals (S&P handling, valuation discussions)** imply listing mechanics are being negotiated and settled for OpenAI.
- Argument for Yes: **Operational scale and capital needs** — sustaining frontier-model development pushes incentives to tap public capital, favoring the company already in filing steps.
- Argument for Yes: **Historical precedent** — companies that file first and have visible anchor investors typically complete first versus rivals who have not publicly filed.
Against
- Argument against Yes: **Regulatory risk** — a focused policy or national-security review targeting advanced AI could disproportionately delay OpenAI given its prominence.
- Argument against Yes: **Governance complexity** — OpenAI's hybrid legal/capped-profit structure could require extra corporate engineering before listing, introducing delays.
- Argument against Yes: **Anthropic could accelerate** — with sufficient capital and a strategic decision, Anthropic can file quickly and overtake an OpenAI timeline.
- Argument against Yes: **Market conditions** — if IPO markets deteriorate materially, both companies may pause; Anthropic might be less affected by public windows if it opts for other liquidity paths.
- Argument against Yes: **Confidential or unreported filings** — Anthropic may have taken secret preparatory steps that are not public, narrowing OpenAI's lead.
- Argument against Yes: **M&A risk** — either company could be acquired prior to IPO (particularly Anthropic if a large partner seeks to lock in capability), which would change the 'first' listing outcome.
Key drivers
- Existence and timing of formal IPO filings/lodgements by OpenAI or Anthropic
- Investor incentives and pressure (notably Microsoft and other anchor backers)
- Regulatory scrutiny and potential restrictions on advanced AI models
- Capital markets / IPO window conditions between 2026–2040
- Corporate governance complexity (OpenAI's capped-profit structure vs Anthropic's governance)
Risk factors
- Regulatory or national-security interventions that materially delay or block an OpenAI listing
- Last-minute legal or governance issues at OpenAI that push its timeline out beyond Anthropic's acceleration
- Anthropic elects to accelerate, files confidentially, or pursues an expedited listing/alternative liquidity event
- Severe IPO market downturns that stall large tech listings for multiple years
- Strategic buyouts or private transactions (e.g., a tech acquirer buys Anthropic before OpenAI lists, which could change the 'first' outcome)
Scenarios
Best case
OpenAI completes its IPO promptly after the reported filings (within 12–24 months), while Anthropic remains private longer due to strategic choice or slower regulatory prep; OpenAI is publicly listed first and captures the primary ‘AI leader’ public narrative.
Most likely
OpenAI, having completed paperwork and resolved major back-office and listing preparation, moves ahead and lists before Anthropic, but the timeline could be measured in months to a few years rather than weeks; occasional regulatory or market noise creates short-term volatility in perceived ordering but does not change the ultimate ordering.
Worst case
Regulatory, legal, or governance complications stall OpenAI’s IPO for several years; Anthropic accelerates or is acquired and effectively becomes ‘first’ (either via its own IPO or a liquidity event), yielding a No outcome.
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