Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

The market-implied probability (Yes ~22.5%) indicates participants see this outcome as unlikely but not impossible; the market has substantial liquidity, so the price reflects active trading around a relatively short remaining window (12 calendar days). With fewer than two weeks left, any qualifying 7-day average must be produced by a sustained run of daily counts at or above the threshold, or by revisions to earlier published data within the market timeframe that lift the 7-day series above 60.

Absent reliable live reporting in this prompt, the assessment relies on structural knowledge of chokepoint traffic behavior: in normal, uneventful conditions the Strait of Hormuz regularly supports heavy tanker and commercial transits such that a 7-day average at or above 60 is plausible, while security incidents, insurance-driven re-routing, or sanctions-driven reductions can push counts materially lower. Seasonality and short-term operational events (e.g., backlog clearing at nearby ports, temporary re-openings of previously constrained routes) can produce rapid upward swings, but those swings must be sustained for a week to satisfy the moving-average condition.

Data mechanics and reporting nuance materially affect resolution odds: IMF Portwatch counts only reported arrivals and is subject to later revisions during the market window, so a late upward revision to previously published days could retroactively create a qualifying 7-day average, increasing the chance relative to purely realized daily flows; conversely, under-reporting or classification differences could keep published counts below the threshold even if real movements are higher. The market’s relatively low Yes price suggests traders either believe published counts have been depressed recently or that structural factors make sustained >=60 unlikely within the remaining period.

Balancing these considerations, I place probability above the market-implied 22.5% but comfortably below 50% because the remaining time is short and the 7-day averaging requirement raises the bar: while short-term rallies or revisions could produce a hit, multiple contiguous high-count days or favorable revisions would be required, and those are uncertain enough that No remains the most likely resolution.