Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

The market is currently pricing the event as extremely unlikely, and that pricing reflects two linked realities: the contract requires a sustained 7-day moving average at or above 60 (not a single-day spike) and there are fewer than three weeks remaining for whatever operational and security changes are necessary to generate that sustained rise. Without access to the latest Portwatch time series in this prompt, I assume recent days have shown depressed transit counts relative to pre-disruption baselines; if daily counts were already near 60, the market pricing would likely be higher, so the low price implies the community believes current averages are well below the threshold or rising too slowly to qualify.

From an operational perspective, restoring flows through the Strait of Hormuz generally requires not only a reduction in immediate threats but also time for ships to alter routing plans, reposition, and for insurers and charterers to modify risk assessments; this is not typically instantaneous and often takes several shipment cycles. Even if threat perceptions fall, vessels that have already rerouted (Suez/Cape of Good Hope or to nearby ports) will take time to come back into the corridor, and port calls and scheduled sailings are determined days to weeks in advance, which compresses the available window for a 7-day sustained increase.

Market sentiment and liquidity are meaningful signals here: high volume and a dominant No price indicate many traders have concluded either that security conditions remain unfavorable or that logistics and insurance frictions are unlikely to reverse quickly enough before June 30. That said, geopolitical events can move rapidly; a clear, widely publicized de-escalation combined with visible convoys or multinational naval protection could trigger a faster return than planners expect, which is why a small probability remains plausible.

Finally, data-source and publication considerations cut both ways: Portwatch revisions of earlier days could retroactively lift a published 7-day average above 60 if initially understated, and publication lags or clerical corrections are allowed by the market rules within a limited window; conversely, any reporting delays or conservative counting approaches would reduce the chance that a qualifying 7-day average appears before the cutoff date.