Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?
I assess that OpenAI is more likely than Anthropic to IPO first — my independent probability is 72% that OpenAI will IPO before Anthropic (by 2040). Timing uncertainty is substantial, but OpenAI’s product momentum, revenue signals, and visible intent outweigh the structural and governance risks that could slow it down.
Analysis
**Stage 1 — Blind analysis (ignore current market price):**
- Summary judgement: on the facts available, OpenAI is the more likely candidate to list before Anthropic. OpenAI shows stronger public-readiness signals: broader product penetration (ChatGPT consumer & enterprise footprint), clearer revenue pathways, and a visible push from leadership toward a public listing. Those elements create incentives — both internal (liquidity for employees, valuation discovery) and external (investor appetite, Microsoft signaling) — that typically accelerate IPO timing compared with a smaller, less public-facing rival.
- Why I put the probability at 72%: the horizon to 2040 is long, giving many opportunities for either firm to act, be acquired, or be deterred by regulation. But within that long window I weight the combination of OpenAI’s market-facing product momentum and its investor profile higher than Anthropic’s current public-readiness evidence. I do discount some of OpenAI’s speed prospects due to real governance frictions (capped-profit structure, need for legal restructuring), heavy infrastructure spending, and the reported CFO skepticism about a 2026 listing. Those factors reduce but do not eliminate OpenAI’s lead.
- Key considerations that move the probability: revenue trajectory and monetization (favors OpenAI), governance and conversion complexity (favors Anthropic), strategic options with Microsoft (ambiguous — could speed or replace IPO), and macro IPO markets/regulatory landscape (could stall both). Given typical corporate behavior, organizations with clear revenue and pressure for liquidity tend to push to public markets unless an acquisition is preferable and available.
**Stage 2 — Market calibration (look at current market price Yes = 76%):**
- The market price (76% for OpenAI first) is slightly higher than my independent 72% estimate but within a small margin. That suggests the market broadly agrees OpenAI is the favorite. The 4-point gap could reflect a few influences: - *Recency and brand bias:* OpenAI’s consumer-facing prominence (ChatGPT) produces overweighting by bettors who equate brand visibility with inevitability. - *Liquidity-driven concentration:* Markets with heavy volume on a favorite often reflect large participants taking directional positions (e.g., hedge funds or insiders) that push the price above the median independent view. - *Underweighting of structural delays:* some market participants may underweight the time and legal complexity needed to convert OpenAI’s governance for a standard IPO, or the possibility Microsoft intervenes with a strategic outcome that preempts an IPO.
- Why I am not adjusting my independent probability up to 76%: the reported CFO resistance and the other concrete execution risks (infrastructure spending, competition, and Microsoft strategic options) are material and reduce the probability that OpenAI will necessarily be first. The market may be slightly overconfident because the most visible signals (leadership intent, public-facing products) are easy to observe, while conversion difficulties and strategic M&A risks are less visible but meaningful.
- Where the market could be correct: if OpenAI resolves governance questions quickly, continues strong revenue growth, and the macro IPO environment is favorable in the late-2020s, the market’s 76% is plausible. Conversely, if Anthropic’s backers push it to market faster via a simpler corporate path, that would undercut the market consensus.
Overall: my independent 72% reflects a modestly more cautious read than the market, driven by structural and strategic risks that could delay OpenAI or overturn expectations; but the market price is close enough that this is more a calibration nuance than a stark disagreement.
Arguments
For
- OpenAI has larger, more visible revenue channels and product adoption (ChatGPT consumer & API) which create traditional incentives for a public listing sooner.
- Leadership has signaled intent for a listing in public forums (Sam Altman’s push for a near-term IPO), which raises execution probability compared with a lower-profile rival.
- High-profile investor interest and the need to provide liquidity to employees and early investors typically bias toward the organization with stronger public traction — here, OpenAI.
Against
- OpenAI’s unusual capped-profit governance and charter could require complex legal restructuring to pursue a standard IPO, introducing long, material delays that favor Anthropic.
- Reported internal tension (CFO publicly skeptical of a 2026 timeline) and heavy infrastructure spending increase execution risk and may force OpenAI to delay or pursue alternative strategic outcomes.
- Microsoft’s deep strategic relationship could result in a buyout or exclusive deal that preempts an IPO, or conversely could slow an IPO to preserve partnership advantages; both outcomes lower the chance OpenAI lists first.
Key drivers
- Revenue & monetization momentum for OpenAI (ChatGPT subscriptions, API enterprise sales)
- Institutional complexity and corporate governance (OpenAI's capped-profit/charter conversion needs)
- Microsoft relationship — strategic investor, integration, and potential acquisition dynamics
- Anthropic’s fundraising, go-to-market traction, and corporate simplicity relative to OpenAI
- Macro IPO windows and regulatory scrutiny of leading AI firms (U.S./EU policy and listing conditions)
Risk factors
- OpenAI governance conversion drag: legal/charter changes could materially delay an IPO timeline
- Potential acquisition by Microsoft or other strategic buyer before an IPO (removes OpenAI from the race)
- Anthropic accelerating its path (faster corporate readiness or simpler capitalization) and listing first
- Prolonged weak public markets or heightened regulatory restrictions on AI companies delaying both IPOs
Scenarios
Best case
OpenAI resolves governance requirements quickly, capital markets are receptive in the late 2020s, and OpenAI files and completes an IPO before Anthropic — likely between 2026–2030. This is supported by continued strong revenue growth and a strategic decision to prioritize a public listing over any acquisition.
Most likely
OpenAI remains the favorite but timing slips later than initial leadership targets. OpenAI ultimately lists before Anthropic, but probably not in the aggressive windows initially discussed (likely nearer-term attempts in 2026 fail or are delayed, and the listing happens in the late 2020s or early 2030s). Anthropic remains a credible challenger and could overtake OpenAI if governance or strategic developments favor a faster route to market.
Worst case
Anthropic moves faster — either via simpler corporate structure or an aggressive listing strategy — and completes an IPO before OpenAI, or Microsoft acquires OpenAI (or locks it into a long-term private partnership), preventing it from ever listing first. Alternatively, severe regulatory action or prolonged public-market turbulence keeps OpenAI private much longer, allowing Anthropic to be first.
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