Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
I assess a 30% probability that Benjamin Netanyahu will be sworn in as Prime Minister after the October 27, 2026 election, reflecting his durable base and organizational advantages balanced against significant legal, political, and coalition risks.
Analysis
Market-implied probability (Yes ~33%) and heavy trading (>$13M) indicate active interest and a reasonably liquid consensus slightly above my estimate, suggesting traders see a non-negligible but not dominant chance for Netanyahu. The scheduled election date of October 27, 2026 gives parties months to shift public opinion and form pre-election alliances, and the market price likely reflects both incumbent name recognition and uncertainty about post-election coalition arithmetic.
Historically, Netanyahu has demonstrated resilience: a strong personal vote, deep party infrastructure within Likud, and a track record of returning to power after setbacks, which creates a meaningful baseline probability for his return. At the same time, his long tenure and legal entanglements (ongoing trials as of mid-2024) create asymmetric downside risk because criminal convictions, sustained protest movements, or coalition partner reluctance could block his path to reappointment even if his list wins many seats.
Coalition mathematics are decisive in Israel's parliamentary system: the ability to assemble 61 Knesset members (or a credible pledge presented to the President) is more important than raw seat totals, and smaller parties and kingmakers can swing outcomes; fragmentation on both right and center-left amplifies volatility and increases the chance that an anti-Netanyahu coalition could form even without a single dominant opposition party. External shocks—major security incidents, a regional escalation, or a high-profile diplomatic development—can rapidly shift voter behavior and coalition incentives, and these tail events are important for both boosting an incumbent's rally effect or delegitimizing his candidacy depending on timing and nature.
Arguments
For
- Netanyahu has a durable personal base and organizational infrastructure that consistently produces strong constituency-level turnout.
- Incumbency and visibility give Netanyahu an advantage in crises, messaging, and media reach during the campaign period.
- Smaller right-wing and religious parties often prefer to join a Netanyahu-led coalition rather than risk marginalization, aiding coalition formation.
- A successful security-related rally event before the election would likely increase support for a seasoned leader like Netanyahu.
Against
- Ongoing criminal cases create both legal and political obstacles that could prevent him from being an acceptable coalition leader.
- Voter fatigue after many years of Netanyahu-led politics raises the probability that opposition blocs can mobilize anti-incumbent sentiment.
- Deep fragmentation of the right wing could leave Netanyahu’s list short of a viable governing majority without unpredictable compromises.
- The President and key kingmaker parties may prefer an alternative candidate who can assemble a broader, less contentious coalition.
Key drivers
- Netanyahu's personal vote and Likud's organization and fundraising strength will determine his floor of support.
- Ongoing legal proceedings and their timing relative to the election will materially influence coalition partners and public sentiment.
- Fragmentation among center and left parties creates opportunities for both Netanyahu and anti-Netanyahu blocs depending on alliance decisions.
- Willingness of small religious and nationalist parties to partner with Netanyahu will decide coalition feasibility.
- The President's discretion in designating a candidate to form a government after the election can be decisive in a close outcome.
- Major security events or international developments between now and the election can produce a short-term rally or backlash effect.
Risk factors
- A criminal conviction or definitive legal ruling before the final government formation would substantially reduce Netanyahu's chances of being sworn in.
- A credible anti-Netanyahu coalition forming pre-election or immediately after the vote could block his appointment despite strong seat totals.
- Right-wing coalition partners could fracture or demand terms that prevent a stable Netanyahu-led government.
- Sustained mass protests and domestic delegitimization campaigns could deter potential coalition partners from supporting Netanyahu.
- Shifts in voter turnout among key demographics could erode Likud's seat share relative to opinion polls.
- International diplomatic pressure or conditionality from major allies could influence coalition choices or partner willingness.
Scenarios
Best case
Netanyahu leads Likud to a clear plurality, secures commitments from smaller right-wing and religious parties to reach 61 Knesset members, and is designated and sworn in as Prime Minister after the election, possibly facilitated by delaying or neutralizing legal threats through parliamentary maneuvers.
Most likely
The election produces a fragmented Knesset in which coalition bargaining is protracted and contentious, and the most likely immediate outcome is either a non-Netanyahu coalition formed by an anti-Netanyahu bloc or a narrow Netanyahu path that still faces high risk of collapse during coalition negotiations, with the non-Netanyahu outcome being somewhat more probable.
Worst case
A legal conviction or decisive court ruling before coalition formation makes Netanyahu politically unpalatable or legally constrained, while opposition parties and centrist blocs coalesce to form a majority that the President designates, resulting in another individual being sworn in.
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