Which Supreme Court justices will resign during Trump's term?
I assess a low probability that Justice Clarence Thomas will *voluntarily* resign during President Trump's 2025–2029 term — roughly an 18% chance — because he is active, has strong ideological incentives to remain, and has shown institutional durability, though advanced age raises non-negligible risk.
Analysis
**Stage 1 — Blind analysis (ignore market price)**
Clarence Thomas remains an active justice with recent opinions and separate writings; there is no public announcement or clear signaling of an intent to retire. Historically, Supreme Court justices weigh ideology, institutional legacy, and timing of vacancies when deciding whether to step down; conservative justices in recent decades have shown a strong preference for remaining on the Court unless compelled by health or scandal. Thomas is in his mid-to-late 70s (born 1948), which statistically raises the chance of a health-driven exit relative to younger justices, but age alone is an unreliable predictor of resignation — many justices have served into their 80s.
Weighing the facts: (a) active docket participation and recent writings point toward continued service; (b) ideological incentives point toward staying if a conservative president occupies the White House (a Justice who prefers conservative outcomes has less reason to make room for a successor expected to be similarly aligned); (c) absent public health disclosures, voluntary retirement is more likely to result from a sudden health shock or acute scandal than from a planned, early-in-term staged retreat. Taking these elements together, my independent estimate for a voluntary resignation during Trump’s term is **18%**. This incorporates a non-trivial probability for an unexpected health decline or other exogenous shock, but gives greater weight to Thomas's demonstrated persistence and current activity.
**Stage 2 — Market calibration (now look at market prices)**
The market currently prices "Yes" at 40% and "No" at 60%. My independent 18% is substantially lower than the market's 40%. Possible reasons the market is pricing higher than my independent view:
- *Heuristic over-weighting of age/uncertainty*: Markets and many participants tend to inflate resignation probabilities for justices as they enter their late 70s, treating age as much more predictive of retirement than historical behavior supports. That may be pushing the price up. - *Ambiguity premium / volatility*: The market may be embedding a risk premium for unanticipated health events or politically driven information shocks (e.g., reporting of poor health), which raise short-term trading demand to buy 'Yes'. - *Liquidity and trader composition*: With ~71,920 contracts of volume, a subset of large traders or news-driven traders could be skewing the price away from fundamentals; this market may be more sentiment-driven than information-driven.
Given my independent probability (18%) relative to market (40%), I conclude the market likely overstates the chance of a voluntary resignation. That does not mean the market is wrong — a sudden news event could rapidly make 40% look conservative — but as of now the market appears to overweight age and uncertainty and underweight Thomas's demonstrated institutional stickiness and ideological incentives to remain.
(If you want, I can produce a compact scenario-based price-implied probability decomposition to show what types of news would rationally move the market from 40% toward my 18% or vice versa.)
Arguments
For
- Active service and recent authored writings indicate continued engagement with the Court and argue against imminent resignation.
- Strong ideological incentive to remain during a conservative presidency — less reason to create a vacancy for a similarly aligned president.
- Historical behavior of many modern justices shows they often serve into advanced age unless confronted with clear health or personal reasons to retire.
Against
- Advanced age (mid-to-late 70s) increases the statistical probability of a health-related exit during a four-year span compared with younger justices.
- Resignation can be triggered by sudden, unpredictable factors (acute illness, family reasons, or a scandal) that are very hard to forecast from public activity.
- If Thomas privately prefers a particular timing to maximize a successor's likelihood, political calculations could create conditions under which he might step down — though such strategic retirements are less common among staunch ideologues.
Key drivers
- Justice Thomas's current activity level on the Court (opinions and writings)
- Age and baseline health risk (mid-to-late 70s increases chance of health-driven exit)
- Ideological/institutional incentives to remain (desire to preserve conservative majority)
- Likelihood of sudden health shock, scandal, or explicit retirement signaling
- Market sentiment and information asymmetry (how traders interpret sparse signals)
Risk factors
- Unexpected severe health event or incapacity (not public until it happens)
- Emergence of substantive reporting or credible leak indicating plans to step down
- Major scandal or ethical controversy that forces or persuades resignation
- Misinterpretation of reduced public activity as signaling retirement
- Market illiquidity and concentration of bets that can produce price swings disconnected from fundamentals
Scenarios
Best case
Yes — Thomas resigns during Trump's term. This could occur if a sudden, serious health issue or family emergency arises, or if credible reporting indicates he intends to step down early in the term. In that case the vacancy would occur while a conservative president controls nominations, and markets would rapidly reprice toward near-certainty of a conservative successor.
Most likely
Thomas stays on the Court but faces elevated baseline risk from age. He remains active for most major cases; the market experiences periodic jumps on health or rumor-driven headlines but no credible evidence emerges of intent to resign, resulting in no voluntary vacancy during Trump's term.
Worst case
No — Thomas remains throughout the term. He continues to participate in opinions and separate writings, perhaps reducing his workload but not formally resigning. The Court's composition remains stable, and the market's 'Yes' price falls toward single digits as no resignation signals materialize.
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