Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
I assess a 40% probability that Benjamin Netanyahu will be sworn in as Israel's next prime minister after the 2026 election, reflecting his strong incumbency and party organization balanced against persistent legal vulnerability, coalition fragility, and opposition mobilization.
Analysis
Benjamin Netanyahu retains structural advantages heading into a scheduled October 27, 2026 election: name recognition, long-standing Likud party machinery, durable support in large portions of the right-wing and religious electorate, and experience navigating Israeli coalition bargaining. Those advantages translate into a baseline probability that he will either lead a plurality-winning list or be the natural candidate asked to form a government if the bloc arithmetic favors the right. Incumbency also gives him agenda-setting power and the ability to emphasize security messaging if regional tensions intensify between now and the vote.
Balancing those strengths are several powerful counterweights. Netanyahu’s ongoing legal troubles and corruption indictments — which have dominated Israeli politics for years — continue to erode support among centrists and mobilize anti-Netanyahu protest constituencies; a conviction or harsh legal development before the election would materially reduce his chances. Coalition arithmetic remains unusually fragile: even if Likud wins the largest share of seats, Netanyahu will likely need partners from the far-right and ultra-Orthodox factions whose presence alienates moderates and can cost votes in both directions, and intra-bloc fragmentation or the emergence of new right-wing figures could split his potential coalition.
Market sentiment (Yes: 36%) shows skepticism but also respect for Netanyahu’s comeback capacity, and the event’s large volume indicates active trading and differing views about likely coalition outcomes and the effect of legal timelines. Historical patterns in Israel show incumbents with strong party organizations can survive scandals or recover between elections, yet the country’s recent history of repeated elections and rapid political shifts means that small changes in turnout, a single credible centrist coalition, or an external security event can swing the outcome quickly. Given the long runway to October 2026, multiple permutations remain plausible, so while Netanyahu is a continuing front-runner in many scenarios, the overall likelihood of him ultimately being sworn in is below even odds in my assessment.
Arguments
For
- Netanyahu benefits from incumbency, high name recognition, and entrenched party organization that reliably wins votes in many regions.
- His electoral messaging on security and experience resonates with a sizeable segment of voters during periods of regional tension.
- Likud has historically been able to attract right-leaning vote share even after scandals, giving Netanyahu a path to plurality.
- Netanyahu has demonstrated repeated resilience in Israeli politics, surviving prior legal and political crises to remain electorally competitive.
- He can still plausibly assemble a 61-seat coalition by partnering with ultra-Orthodox and far-right parties if those parties retain strength.
Against
- Ongoing indictments and the risk of a conviction create enduring negative headlines that depress centrist and swing support.
- Many moderate voters and smaller parties oppose joining a Netanyahu-led coalition, making the post-election bargaining more difficult.
- Public fatigue and recurring protests against Netanyahu have energized opposition movements and voter turnout among his opponents.
- If new right-wing alternatives or charismatic leaders emerge, they could split the vote and deny Likud a clear plurality.
- International diplomatic pressure and the potential for strained relations with key allies could make some coalition options politically costly.
- Coalition partners may demand extreme policy concessions that erode broader public support and invite defections or splits.
Key drivers
- Incumbency and Likud’s organizational capacity to mobilize voters and convert plurality into a claim to form a government.
- Legal timeline and outcomes for Netanyahu’s indictments, which could materially alter voters’ calculus or his eligibility to serve.
- Coalition arithmetic: the ability of Likud plus reliable partners to reach a 61-seat majority in the Knesset.
- Opposition unity and the capacity of a centrist/block to present a single candidate capable of assembling a majority.
- Security environment: a major security incident or escalation can boost an incumbent’s standing or, conversely, expose leadership failures.
- Turnout dynamics among Arab-Israeli, centrist, and ultra-Orthodox constituencies that determine seat distribution at the margins.
- Emergence of new parties or leaders on the right that split Netanyahu’s natural base and reduce Likud’s seat share.
- International pressure and diplomatic factors that could shift domestic elites or coalition partners’ willingness to back Netanyahu.
Risk factors
- A conviction or adverse pre-election legal ruling that weakens Netanyahu’s standing or removes him from contention.
- A unified center-right/center-left coalition that coalesces around a single alternative leader and reaches 61 seats.
- Fragmentation of the right-wing camp, with new parties siphoning off votes from Likud and preventing a majority bloc.
- Sustained and large-scale protest movements that depress turnout among Netanyahu supporters or increase center/left participation.
- A security misstep or scandal under Netanyahu that directly undermines his core competence argument before the vote.
- International sanctions, diplomatic isolation, or pressure that change the domestic political calculation of coalition partners.
- An extraordinary health, personal, or incapacitating development affecting Netanyahu before government formation.
- A surprising surge in Arab or nontraditional voters due to mobilization or strategic voting that alters seat math.
Scenarios
Best case
Netanyahu leads Likud to the largest seat total, allied parties win enough seats to guarantee a 61-seat right-religious coalition, and he is asked by the president to form and is sworn in as prime minister, consolidating his position despite domestic controversy.
Most likely
The election is narrowly decided: Likud performs strongly but not decisively, leaving the Knesset fragmented and forcing complex negotiations; the most probable immediate outcome is either a fragile Netanyahu-led coalition requiring extreme partners or an opposition-led government formed by a broad anti-Netanyahu bloc, with the balance tilted slightly toward the latter given current headwinds.
Worst case
Legal developments or a decisive surge in a united opposition produce either a loss of plurality or an inability to assemble a majority, resulting in an alternate leader being sworn in or prolonged negotiations that end with someone other than Netanyahu taking office.
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