Edges for May 22, 2026

I assess a 72% probability that President Trump will sign an executive action or law creating a federal review process for public AI model releases by May 31, 2026, most likely via a narrowly scoped executive order addressing high-risk models and national-security concerns.

Given strong personal incentives and typical behavior for immediate-family events, I assess a better-than-even chance that Donald Trump will attend Donald Trump Jr.'s wedding; however scheduling conflicts (legal or campaign) and security logistics create meaningful downside risk.

I assess a 30% probability that Donald Trump will win and accept the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, reflecting a meaningful but minority chance driven by his enduring base and organizational strengths offset by legal, age, and party consolidation risks.

Given typical traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and routine daily tanker and cargo movements, I assess a better-than-even chance that IMF Portwatch will publish a day with at least 20 arrivals by May 31, 2026, with remaining uncertainty from reporting definitions and short time remaining.

Given the short remaining window, typical realized volatility, and the market-implied 14% price, I assess a modest but not negligible chance that ETH will touch $2,000 during May 18–24; my best estimate is 18%.

I assess a modest but non-negligible chance that Bitcoin will reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026, placing the probability at 18% based on macro, on-chain, and market-structure considerations balanced against sizable downside and path-dependence risks.

I assess a 12% probability that the United States will commence a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran before 2027, well below the market-implied ~29.5% but reflecting a non-negligible tail risk driven by possible major escalatory triggers.

I estimate a 60% chance that Jannik Sinner wins the 2026 French Open; he is clearly one of the favorites given his game and probable seeding, but clay-specialist opponents, draw dynamics, and in-tournament variance keep the probability well below market-implied 71.5%.

I assess an 85% chance that Solstice's FDV will be above $50M one day after launch, based on the high market-implied probability, typical tokenomics for new DeFi governance tokens, and the relatively modest $50M threshold compared to common launch valuations.

I assess a near coin-flip but slightly favorable chance that Benjamin Netanyahu will be sworn in as Israel's next prime minister after the 27 October 2026 election, because his durable political machine and coalition prospects balance significant legal, political, and electoral headwinds.

I assess a low but non-negligible chance that Ethereum will reach $10,000 by Dec 31, 2026 — approximately 10%, reflecting the large market-cap uplift required and the plausibility of a strong multi-year crypto bull market scenario.

I assess Marine Le Pen has a modest but real chance of winning the 2027 French presidency, with a probability of about 12% driven by structural barriers in the two-round system but offset by continuing normalization of the far-right and potential political shocks.

I assess a low but non-negligible chance that the Trump administration will publicly and explicitly announce the lifting of the Strait of Hormuz blockade by May 31, 2026, assigning a 20% probability to a qualifying announcement within the deadline.

Given the very short timeline, strong domestic political headwinds, and historical U.S. resistance to accepting Iranian enrichment, I assess a low probability that Trump will publicly agree to continued Iranian enrichment by May 31, 2026, though a narrowly tailored, monitored deal tied to hostage releases or major oil-market concessions remains a plausible path to Yes.

I assess a 38% probability that Hyperliquid will reach $100 by December 31, 2026, slightly below the current market-implied probability, reflecting sizable upside potential but meaningful information gaps and downside risks.

I assess a 72% probability that Andy Burnham will win the 2026 Makerfield by-election, reflecting his strong regional profile and the seat's Labour lean, tempered by uncertainty over whether he will stand and by typical by-election volatility.

Given the very short time window and the large sustained increase in daily transits required to push a 7-day average to 60, I estimate a low but nonzero chance that IMF Portwatch will record a qualifying 7-day average by May 31, 2026.

Given typical FOMC behavior, the strong market pricing, and the need for more incoming data to justify a move, I assess a high probability that the Fed will leave the upper bound of the target federal funds rate unchanged at the July 28–29, 2026 meeting.

I assess a 12% probability that the Dallas Cowboys will win the 2027 NFC Championship, modestly above the market-implied 7.2% because the franchise often reaches the postseason but faces strong NFC competition and key structural risks.

I assess a moderately favorable chance (60%) that the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 will be enacted by Dec 31, 2026, based on bipartisan appetite for crypto clarity, strong industry lobbying, and realistic legislative pathway, tempered by procedural hurdles, jurisdictional fights, and the presidential/leadership alignment required to secure final passage and signature.

Given strong market momentum, dominant position in AI accelerators, and short time to the resolution date, I assess a high probability that NVIDIA will be the largest company by market cap on June 30, 2026, but non-negligible tail risks justify discounting the market-implied near-certainty.

I assess a 42% probability that the Fed will raise the upper bound of the federal funds rate at least once in 2026, reflecting a modestly higher chance than current market pricing because of upside inflation and labor-market risks balanced against significant disinflationary momentum and the Fed’s typical caution.